AUREA SA Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| 94P Stock | 5.98 0.16 2.75% |
AUREA Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of AUREA SA's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 5th of February 2026 the relative strength index (rsi) of AUREA SA's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.77) | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.18) |
Using AUREA SA hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of AUREA SA INH from the perspective of AUREA SA response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of AUREA SA INH on the next trading day is expected to be 5.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.19. AUREA SA after-hype prediction price | EUR 5.98 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
AUREA |
AUREA SA Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine AUREA price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for AUREA using various technical indicators. When you analyze AUREA charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
AUREA SA Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 6th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of AUREA SA INH on the next trading day is expected to be 5.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.19.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict AUREA Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that AUREA SA's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
AUREA SA Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest AUREA SA | AUREA SA Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
AUREA SA Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting AUREA SA's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. AUREA SA's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 3.70 and 8.23, respectively. We have considered AUREA SA's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of AUREA SA stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent AUREA SA stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.222 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0026 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1031 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0177 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 6.1864 |
Predictive Modules for AUREA SA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AUREA SA INH. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.AUREA SA After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of AUREA SA at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in AUREA SA or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of AUREA SA, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
AUREA SA Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting AUREA SA's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on AUREA SA's historical news coverage. AUREA SA's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 3.72 and 8.24, respectively. We have considered AUREA SA's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
AUREA SA is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of AUREA SA INH is based on 3 months time horizon.
AUREA SA Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as AUREA SA is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading AUREA SA backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with AUREA SA, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.13 | 2.26 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
5.98 | 5.98 | 0.00 |
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AUREA SA Hype Timeline
AUREA SA INH is presently traded for 5.98on Frankfurt Exchange of Germany. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.01. AUREA is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.13%. %. The volatility of related hype on AUREA SA is about 2137.84%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 5.97. About 77.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees . The company has Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio of 0.75. In the past many companies with similar price-to-book ratios have beat the market. AUREA SA INH recorded a loss per share of 0.22. The entity last dividend was issued on the 4th of November 2025. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next estimated press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AUREA SA to cross-verify your projections.AUREA SA Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to AUREA SA's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict AUREA SA's future price movements. Getting to know how AUREA SA's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how AUREA SA may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| 4JP | Japan Post Insurance | (0.20) | 6 per month | 1.28 | 0.15 | 3.08 | (2.27) | 6.51 | |
| QBE | QBE Insurance Group | (0.1) | 7 per month | 1.37 | (0.03) | 1.87 | (2.70) | 6.36 | |
| A4XA | American Homes 4 | 1.00 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 2.26 | (2.29) | 6.58 | |
| SFN | Safety Insurance Group | 0.00 | 7 per month | 0.81 | 0.14 | 3.08 | (2.22) | 6.96 | |
| WSV2 | VIENNA INSURANCE GR | 0.60 | 1 per month | 0.83 | 0.25 | 6.44 | (2.21) | 11.82 | |
| PZX | Ping An Insurance | (0.04) | 2 per month | 1.12 | 0.17 | 3.30 | (2.29) | 8.69 | |
| AF4 | HANOVER INSURANCE | (2.00) | 7 per month | 0.71 | 0.01 | 1.96 | (1.89) | 5.93 |
Other Forecasting Options for AUREA SA
For every potential investor in AUREA, whether a beginner or expert, AUREA SA's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. AUREA Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in AUREA. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying AUREA SA's price trends.AUREA SA Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with AUREA SA stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of AUREA SA could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing AUREA SA by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
AUREA SA Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how AUREA SA stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading AUREA SA shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying AUREA SA stock market strength indicators, traders can identify AUREA SA INH entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.03 | |||
| Day Median Price | 5.98 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 5.98 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.08 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.16 |
AUREA SA Risk Indicators
The analysis of AUREA SA's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in AUREA SA's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aurea stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.85 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.28 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.35 | |||
| Variance | 5.52 | |||
| Downside Variance | 6.08 | |||
| Semi Variance | 5.18 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.98) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for AUREA SA
The number of cover stories for AUREA SA depends on current market conditions and AUREA SA's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that AUREA SA is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about AUREA SA's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in AUREA Stock
AUREA SA financial ratios help investors to determine whether AUREA Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in AUREA with respect to the benefits of owning AUREA SA security.