Vitruvia Medical Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing

991 Stock   1.40  0.10  7.69%   
Vitruvia Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Vitruvia Medical's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Vitruvia Medical's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Vitruvia Medical AG, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Vitruvia Medical's stock price prediction:
Wall Street Target Price
1.8
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.173
Using Vitruvia Medical hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Vitruvia Medical AG from the perspective of Vitruvia Medical response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Vitruvia Medical AG on the next trading day is expected to be 1.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.63.

Vitruvia Medical after-hype prediction price

    
  EUR 1.4  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Vitruvia Medical to cross-verify your projections.

Vitruvia Medical Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Vitruvia price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Vitruvia using various technical indicators. When you analyze Vitruvia charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Vitruvia Medical simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Vitruvia Medical AG are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Vitruvia Medical prices get older.

Vitruvia Medical Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 7th of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Vitruvia Medical AG on the next trading day is expected to be 1.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.63.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Vitruvia Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Vitruvia Medical's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Vitruvia Medical Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Vitruvia Medical  Vitruvia Medical Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Vitruvia Medical Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Vitruvia Medical's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Vitruvia Medical's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 5.39, respectively. We have considered Vitruvia Medical's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
1.40
1.40
Expected Value
5.39
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Vitruvia Medical stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Vitruvia Medical stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria111.4851
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0103
MADMean absolute deviation0.0103
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0092
SAESum of the absolute errors0.63
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Vitruvia Medical AG forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Vitruvia Medical observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Vitruvia Medical

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vitruvia Medical. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.071.405.39
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.071.475.46
Details

Vitruvia Medical After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Vitruvia Medical at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Vitruvia Medical or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Vitruvia Medical, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Vitruvia Medical Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Vitruvia Medical's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Vitruvia Medical's historical news coverage. Vitruvia Medical's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.07 and 5.39, respectively. We have considered Vitruvia Medical's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
1.40
1.40
After-hype Price
5.39
Upside
Vitruvia Medical is dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Vitruvia Medical is based on 3 months time horizon.

Vitruvia Medical Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Vitruvia Medical is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Vitruvia Medical backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Vitruvia Medical, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  1.09 
3.99
 0.00  
  0.03 
4 Events / Month
2 Events / Month
In about 4 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
1.40
1.40
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Vitruvia Medical Hype Timeline

Vitruvia Medical is presently traded for 1.40on Munich Exchange of Germany. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.03. Vitruvia is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 1.09%. %. The volatility of related hype on Vitruvia Medical is about 15200.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.43. The company recorded a loss per share of 1.05. Vitruvia Medical had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 4 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Vitruvia Medical to cross-verify your projections.

Vitruvia Medical Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Vitruvia Medical's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Vitruvia Medical's future price movements. Getting to know how Vitruvia Medical's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Vitruvia Medical may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
8DAInPlay Oil Corp 0.05 3 per month 2.35  0.14  6.62 (4.44) 14.00 
06SSportsmans Warehouse Holdings 0.10 5 per month 0.00 (0.22) 5.36 (5.85) 27.31 
688PLAY2CHILL SA ZY 0.02 1 per month 3.09 (0.01) 6.41 (5.33) 29.53 
RS6RELIANCE STEEL AL 1.00 1 per month 0.60  0.19  2.76 (1.42) 4.30 
UVDUniversal Display(0.90)7 per month 0.00 (0.11) 4.11 (4.15) 24.44 
A43LEGACY IRON ORE 0.00 1 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
2NY2ePlay Digital 0.00 2 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
8IIPLAYTIKA HOLDING DL 01(0.06)2 per month 0.00 (0.05) 3.64 (4.21) 17.17 

Other Forecasting Options for Vitruvia Medical

For every potential investor in Vitruvia, whether a beginner or expert, Vitruvia Medical's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Vitruvia Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Vitruvia. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Vitruvia Medical's price trends.

Vitruvia Medical Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Vitruvia Medical stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Vitruvia Medical could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Vitruvia Medical by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Vitruvia Medical Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Vitruvia Medical stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Vitruvia Medical shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Vitruvia Medical stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Vitruvia Medical AG entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Vitruvia Medical Risk Indicators

The analysis of Vitruvia Medical's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Vitruvia Medical's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting vitruvia stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Vitruvia Medical

The number of cover stories for Vitruvia Medical depends on current market conditions and Vitruvia Medical's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Vitruvia Medical is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Vitruvia Medical's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

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Additional Tools for Vitruvia Stock Analysis

When running Vitruvia Medical's price analysis, check to measure Vitruvia Medical's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Vitruvia Medical is operating at the current time. Most of Vitruvia Medical's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Vitruvia Medical's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Vitruvia Medical's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Vitruvia Medical to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.