Advance Auto Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| A1AP34 Stock | BRL 14.66 0.65 4.64% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Advance Auto Parts on the next trading day is expected to be 14.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.34 and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.88. Advance Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Advance Auto stock prices and determine the direction of Advance Auto Parts's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Advance Auto's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Advance |
Advance Auto Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Advance Auto Parts on the next trading day is expected to be 14.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.34, mean absolute percentage error of 0.18, and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.88.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Advance Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Advance Auto's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Advance Auto Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Advance Auto | Advance Auto Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Advance Auto Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Advance Auto's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Advance Auto's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 11.99 and 17.12, respectively. We have considered Advance Auto's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Advance Auto stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Advance Auto stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.402 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3423 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0247 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 20.8779 |
Predictive Modules for Advance Auto
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Advance Auto Parts. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Advance Auto
For every potential investor in Advance, whether a beginner or expert, Advance Auto's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Advance Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Advance. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Advance Auto's price trends.Advance Auto Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Advance Auto stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Advance Auto could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Advance Auto by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Advance Auto Parts Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Advance Auto's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Advance Auto's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Advance Auto Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Advance Auto stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Advance Auto shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Advance Auto stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Advance Auto Parts entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Advance Auto Risk Indicators
The analysis of Advance Auto's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Advance Auto's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting advance stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.36 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.24 | |||
| Variance | 10.53 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Advance Stock
When determining whether Advance Auto Parts is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Advance Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Advance Auto Parts Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Advance Auto Parts Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Advance Auto to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Equity Valuation module to check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data.