American Airlines Stock Forward View - 20 Period Moving Average
| AAL Stock | USD 13.18 0.24 1.85% |
20 Period Moving Average is applied to American Airlines Group's daily closing prices, and the resulting forecast is presented with accuracy metrics. Wide deviation between fitted and observed values suggests the model's assumptions may not match current market conditions. The 20 Period Moving Average model projects American Airlines at 11.99 for the next trading day, below the most recent closing price. This 20 Period Moving Average output is provided as analytical reference and does not constitute a trading recommendation.
20 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 8th of May
Over a 90-day horizon, the 20 Period Moving Average model forecasts American Airlines at 11.99 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 0.86 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.08 , and sum of absolute errors of 35.25 .This indicates moderate forecast accuracy — the model captures the general trend but not all short-term variation in American Airlines' price. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest American Airlines | American Airlines Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast range for American Airlines defines statistically derived downside and upside boundaries based on model performance. The projected band runs from roughly 8.78 on the downside to about 15.20 on the upside. The wide range indicates elevated uncertainty in short-term projections.
Model Predictive Factors
The table below summarizes the 20 Period Moving Average model's error metrics for American Airlines stock. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 81.4939 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.1167 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.8597 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0766 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 35.2465 |
Other Forecasting Options for American Airlines
American Airlines' daily price returns decompose into trend, seasonal, and residual components. Divergence between short-term and long-term averages in American often signals an upcoming reversal or acceleration.American Airlines Related Equities
These stocks within the Industrials space are often compared to American Airlines by analysts and fund managers in the sector. Market cap and total value checks frame American Airlines' size within the competitive field. How American Airlines ranks within this group can shift over time as the competitive picture changes.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
American Airlines Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for American Airlines stock provide a framework for assessing security responsiveness. A rising Accumulation/Distribution line alongside rising price confirms institutional buying interest in American Airlines.
American Airlines Risk Indicators
Assessing American Airlines' risk indicators is a structured way to evaluate the risk-return trade-off for american stock. The level of risk embedded in American Airlines' feeds directly into exposure calibration.
| Mean Deviation | 2.64 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.31 | |||
| Variance | 10.98 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
American Airlines Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to American Airlines Group matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. A disciplined short-interest review can make timing decisions more informed under rising skepticism.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 661.86 million | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 6.57 billion |