Aston/herndon Large Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| AALIX Fund | USD 13.39 0.08 0.59% |
Aston/herndon Mutual Fund outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Aston/herndon Large's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the mutual fund is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Aston/herndon Large hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Astonherndon Large Cap from the perspective of Aston/herndon Large response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Astonherndon Large Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 13.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.75. Aston/herndon Large after-hype prediction price | USD 13.39 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Aston/herndon |
Aston/herndon Large Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Aston/herndon price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Aston/herndon using various technical indicators. When you analyze Aston/herndon charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Aston/herndon Large Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 8th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Astonherndon Large Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 13.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.75.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Aston/herndon Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Aston/herndon Large's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Aston/herndon Large Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Aston/herndon Large | Aston/herndon Large Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Aston/herndon Large Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Aston/herndon Large's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Aston/herndon Large's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 12.77 and 14.01, respectively. We have considered Aston/herndon Large's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aston/herndon Large mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aston/herndon Large mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 111.3029 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -5.0E-4 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0625 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0047 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3.75 |
Predictive Modules for Aston/herndon Large
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Astonherndon Large Cap. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Aston/herndon Large After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Aston/herndon Large at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Aston/herndon Large or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Aston/herndon Large, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Aston/herndon Large Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Aston/herndon Large's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Aston/herndon Large's historical news coverage. Aston/herndon Large's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 12.77 and 14.01, respectively. We have considered Aston/herndon Large's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Aston/herndon Large is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Astonherndon Large Cap is based on 3 months time horizon.
Aston/herndon Large Mutual Fund Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Aston/herndon Large is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Aston/herndon Large backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Aston/herndon Large, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.01 | 0.62 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
13.39 | 13.39 | 0.00 |
|
Aston/herndon Large Hype Timeline
Astonherndon Large Cap is presently traded for 13.39. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.01. Aston/herndon is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.01%. %. The volatility of related hype on Aston/herndon Large is about 78.86%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 13.38. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aston/herndon Large to cross-verify your projections.Aston/herndon Large Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Aston/herndon Large's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Aston/herndon Large's future price movements. Getting to know how Aston/herndon Large's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Aston/herndon Large may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| IOGYX | Invesco Gold Special | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.69 | 0.15 | 4.52 | (4.25) | 16.72 | |
| FRGOX | Franklin Gold Precious | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.65 | 0.14 | 4.97 | (4.60) | 16.65 | |
| AGGWX | Global Gold Fund | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.86 | 0.15 | 4.86 | (4.36) | 17.63 | |
| FGDAX | Gold Portfolio Fidelity | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.75 | 0.12 | 4.51 | (4.44) | 17.38 | |
| FGDIX | Fidelity Advisor Gold | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.77 | 0.15 | 4.65 | (4.45) | 17.37 | |
| GEBNX | Goldman Sachs Esg | (0.14) | 1 per month | 0.66 | 0.02 | 1.41 | (1.30) | 4.33 | |
| EKWAX | Wells Fargo Advantage | (6.13) | 1 per month | 2.80 | 0.13 | 4.68 | (4.79) | 18.29 | |
| EPGFX | Europac Gold Fund | (0.02) | 1 per month | 2.38 | 0.13 | 4.31 | (3.79) | 15.26 |
Other Forecasting Options for Aston/herndon Large
For every potential investor in Aston/herndon, whether a beginner or expert, Aston/herndon Large's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Aston/herndon Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Aston/herndon. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Aston/herndon Large's price trends.Aston/herndon Large Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Aston/herndon Large mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Aston/herndon Large could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Aston/herndon Large by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Aston/herndon Large Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Aston/herndon Large mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Aston/herndon Large shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Aston/herndon Large mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Astonherndon Large Cap entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 13.39 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 13.39 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.04) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.08) |
Aston/herndon Large Risk Indicators
The analysis of Aston/herndon Large's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Aston/herndon Large's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aston/herndon mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.4675 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.6997 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.6233 | |||
| Variance | 0.3884 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.5955 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.4896 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.45) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Aston/herndon Large
The number of cover stories for Aston/herndon Large depends on current market conditions and Aston/herndon Large's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Aston/herndon Large is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Aston/herndon Large's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios
Story Categories
Currently Trending Categories
Other Information on Investing in Aston/herndon Mutual Fund
Aston/herndon Large financial ratios help investors to determine whether Aston/herndon Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Aston/herndon with respect to the benefits of owning Aston/herndon Large security.
| Portfolio Holdings Check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing | |
| Share Portfolio Track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device |