Apple Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| AAPL Stock | USD 248.35 0.70 0.28% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Apple Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 246.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.52 and the sum of the absolute errors of 156.02. Apple Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Apple's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Apple's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Apple fundamentals over time.
As of now, the relative strength index (RSI) of Apple's share price is approaching 31. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Apple, making its price go up or down. Momentum 31
Sell Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.912 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.519 | EPS Estimate Current Year 8.2603 | EPS Estimate Next Year 9.1315 | Wall Street Target Price 287.219 |
Using Apple hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Apple Inc from the perspective of Apple response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Apple using Apple's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Apple using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Apple's stock price.
Apple Short Interest
An investor who is long Apple may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Apple and may potentially protect profits, hedge Apple with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 234.3916 | Short Percent 0.0076 | Short Ratio 2.68 | Shares Short Prior Month 122 M | 50 Day MA 270.5986 |
Apple Inc Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Apple's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Apple. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Apple can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Apple Inc. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Apple Implied Volatility | 0.31 |
Apple's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Apple Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Apple's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Apple stock will not fluctuate a lot when Apple's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Apple Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 246.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.52 and the sum of the absolute errors of 156.02. Apple after-hype prediction price | USD 248.35 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Apple to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Apple contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Apple Inc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0194% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Apple trading at USD 248.35, that is roughly USD 0.0481 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Apple's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Apple Inc options at the current volatility level of 0.31%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Apple Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Apple's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Apple's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Apple stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Apple's open interest, investors have to compare it to Apple's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Apple is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Apple. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Apple Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Apple price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Apple using various technical indicators. When you analyze Apple charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Apple Cash Forecast
To forecast cash or other financial indicators, analysts must employ diverse statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. This approach allows them to detect underlying patterns in the Apple's financial statements, predicting their influence on future market prices.
Cash | First Reported 1985-09-30 | Previous Quarter 36.3 B | Current Value 33.5 B | Quarterly Volatility 13.2 B |
Apple Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Apple Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 246.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.52, mean absolute percentage error of 10.36, and the sum of the absolute errors of 156.02.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Apple Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Apple's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Apple Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Apple | Apple Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Apple Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Apple's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Apple's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 245.10 and 246.93, respectively. We have considered Apple's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Apple stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Apple stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 122.2866 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.5165 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0093 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 156.0208 |
Predictive Modules for Apple
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Apple Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Apple After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Apple at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Apple or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Apple, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Apple Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Apple's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Apple's historical news coverage. Apple's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 247.39 and 249.31, respectively. We have considered Apple's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Apple is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Apple Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Apple Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Apple is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Apple backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Apple, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.13 | 0.91 | 0.58 | 0.02 | 4 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 4 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
248.35 | 248.35 | 0.00 |
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Apple Hype Timeline
Apple Inc is presently traded for 248.35. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.58, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. Apple is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 20.31%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.13%. %. The volatility of related hype on Apple is about 744.55%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 248.33. About 65.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.51. Apple Inc recorded earning per share (EPS) of 7.45. The entity last dividend was issued on the 10th of November 2025. The firm had 4:1 split on the 31st of August 2020. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 4 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Apple to cross-verify your projections.Apple Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Apple's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Apple's future price movements. Getting to know how Apple's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Apple may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GOOGL | Alphabet Inc Class A | (3.53) | 9 per month | 1.22 | 0.18 | 3.53 | (2.42) | 9.53 | |
| NVDA | NVIDIA | 2.03 | 2 per month | 2.08 | (0.03) | 3.01 | (3.65) | 10.18 | |
| MSFT | Microsoft | 5.22 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 1.65 | (2.50) | 4.90 | |
| SONY | Sony Group Corp | (0.05) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.29) | 2.31 | (2.80) | 7.67 | |
| TBCH | Turtle Beach | 0.02 | 18 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 4.90 | (5.41) | 13.97 | |
| NXT | Nextracker Class A | 7.78 | 10 per month | 3.37 | 0.07 | 6.51 | (5.52) | 20.86 | |
| META | Meta Platforms | (10.98) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 3.16 | (2.67) | 13.46 | |
| TSM | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing | (1.66) | 6 per month | 1.79 | 0.04 | 3.06 | (3.45) | 9.62 | |
| RIME | Algorhythm Holdings | 0.07 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 13.66 | (15.79) | 54.66 |
Other Forecasting Options for Apple
For every potential investor in Apple, whether a beginner or expert, Apple's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Apple Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Apple. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Apple's price trends.Apple Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Apple stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Apple could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Apple by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Apple Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Apple stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Apple shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Apple stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Apple Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 412814.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.2482 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 249.59 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 249.18 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.89) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.7 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 31.39 |
Apple Risk Indicators
The analysis of Apple's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Apple's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting apple stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7425 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.08 | |||
| Variance | 1.16 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Apple
The number of cover stories for Apple depends on current market conditions and Apple's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Apple is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Apple's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Apple Short Properties
Apple's future price predictability will typically decrease when Apple's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Apple Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Apple's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Apple's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 15 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 54.7 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Apple to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Equity Valuation module to check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data.
Is Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Apple. If investors know Apple will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Apple listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.912 | Dividend Share 1.02 | Earnings Share 7.45 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.079 |
The market value of Apple Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Apple that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Apple's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Apple's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Apple's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Apple's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Apple's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Apple is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Apple's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.