Almaden Minerals Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

A naive forecasting model for Almaden Minerals is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Almaden Minerals value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Almaden Minerals Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Almaden Minerals on the next trading day is expected to be 0.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 0, mean absolute percentage error of 0.000027, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.26.

Almaden Minerals Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Almaden Minerals

Almaden Minerals Price Prediction

Buy or Sell Advice

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Almaden Minerals stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Almaden Minerals stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Almaden Minerals. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Almaden Minerals. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Almaden Minerals

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Almaden Minerals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 0.15 0.15 0.15 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 0.12 0.12 0.17 Details

Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Almaden Minerals. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Almaden Minerals' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Almaden Minerals' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Almaden Minerals.

Almaden Minerals Related Equities

Risk & Return

Correlation

Almaden Minerals Market Strength Events

Almaden Minerals Risk Indicators

Other Consideration for investing in Almaden Stock