ABB Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction
| ABBNY Stock | 76.44 1.14 1.51% |
Momentum 53
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using ABB hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of ABB from the perspective of ABB response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of ABB on the next trading day is expected to be 76.82 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.84 and the sum of the absolute errors of 51.18. ABB after-hype prediction price | USD 76.44 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
ABB |
ABB Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine ABB price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for ABB using various technical indicators. When you analyze ABB charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
ABB Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of ABB on the next trading day is expected to be 76.82 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.84, mean absolute percentage error of 1.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 51.18.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ABB Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ABB's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
ABB Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
ABB Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting ABB's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ABB's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 75.45 and 78.19, respectively. We have considered ABB's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ABB pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ABB pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.1504 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.8391 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0116 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 51.1829 |
Predictive Modules for ABB
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ABB. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.ABB Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
As far as predicting the price of ABB at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in ABB or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of ABB, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
ABB Pink Sheet Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as ABB is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading ABB backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with ABB, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.04 | 1.37 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
76.44 | 76.44 | 0.00 |
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ABB Hype Timeline
ABB is presently traded for 76.44. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.03. ABB is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.04%. %. The volatility of related hype on ABB is about 201.77%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 76.47. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next estimated press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as various price indices.ABB Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to ABB's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict ABB's future price movements. Getting to know how ABB's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how ABB may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| RYCEF | Rolls Royce Holdings PLC | 9.30 | 7 per month | 1.56 | 0.06 | 3.24 | (2.57) | 6.38 | |
| RYCEY | Rolls Royce Holdings | 0.50 | 25 per month | 1.43 | 0.06 | 3.63 | (1.83) | 6.81 | |
| SBGSY | Schneider Electric SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.43 | (2.92) | 7.05 | |
| SAFRF | Safran SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.47 | (0.0009) | 2.64 | (2.37) | 6.19 | |
| SBGSF | Schneider Electric SE | (0.47) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.71 | (4.70) | 10.90 | |
| SAFRY | Safran SA | (0.47) | 3 per month | 1.30 | (0.01) | 2.83 | (2.15) | 6.87 | |
| HTHIF | Hitachi | (0.47) | 9 per month | 3.36 | 0.06 | 5.06 | (4.71) | 16.79 | |
| ACSAY | ACS Actividades De | (2.78) | 4 per month | 1.44 | 0.21 | 3.90 | (2.54) | 8.90 | |
| MIELY | Mitsubishi Electric Corp | 0.59 | 8 per month | 1.40 | 0.11 | 3.13 | (2.55) | 8.72 | |
| MIELF | Mitsubishi Electric | 0.59 | 4 per month | 2.03 | 0.08 | 5.50 | (4.70) | 14.30 |
Other Forecasting Options for ABB
For every potential investor in ABB, whether a beginner or expert, ABB's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ABB Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ABB. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ABB's price trends.ABB Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ABB pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ABB could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ABB by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
ABB Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ABB pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ABB shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ABB pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify ABB entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
ABB Risk Indicators
The analysis of ABB's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ABB's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting abb pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.05 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.42 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.38 | |||
| Variance | 1.89 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.2 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.01 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.06) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for ABB
The number of cover stories for ABB depends on current market conditions and ABB's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that ABB is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about ABB's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for ABB Pink Sheet Analysis
When running ABB's price analysis, check to measure ABB's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ABB is operating at the current time. Most of ABB's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ABB's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ABB's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ABB to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.