AMERICAN HIGH-INCOME Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Regression

ABHFX Fund

USD 15.37 0.01 0.07%

AMERICAN HIGH-INCOME's Simple Regression forecast is computed from observed closing prices over the selected horizon. The accuracy statistics below distinguish a well-fitted model from one that is smoothing over meaningful price movement. The Simple Regression model projects AMERICAN HIGH-INCOME at 15.27 for the next trading day, below the most recent closing price. The Simple Regression output reflects statistical model results and is provided for reference purposes.

Simple regression fits a straight line through AMERICAN HIGH-INCOME price points using a single independent variable (time). The line is defined by Y = intercept + slope * X, where the slope captures the average rate of price change and the intercept represents the baseline price level.

Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 10th of May

Over a 90-day horizon, the Simple Regression model forecasts AMERICAN HIGH-INCOME at 15.27 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.0048 , and sum of absolute errors of 4.44 .

This represents a very tight forecast — the model closely tracks AMERICAN HIGH-INCOME's recent price behavior. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.

Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest AMERICAN HIGH-INCOME

AMERICAN HIGH-INCOME Price Prediction

Research Analysis

Forecasted Value

The projected range for AMERICAN HIGH-INCOME reflects the model's ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios for the next trading day. The model places downside around 15.05 and upside around 15.49 for the next session. The narrow range indicates limited short-term dispersion.

Market Value

15.37

15.05

Downside

15.27

Expected Value

15.49

Upside

Target Odds

Above Odds

Below Odds

Model Predictive Factors

The table below summarizes the Simple Regression model's error metrics for AMERICAN HIGH-INCOME mutual fund. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.

AIC	Akaike Information Criteria	113.4052
Bias	Arithmetic mean of the errors	None
MAD	Mean absolute deviation	0.0727
MAPE	Mean absolute percentage error	0.0048
SAE	Sum of the absolute errors	4.4361

A positive slope indicates an upward price trend over the selected period; a negative slope indicates a downward trend. The R-squared value measures how well the linear model fits American High Income Municipal price history — values near 1.0 indicate a strong linear trend, while low values suggest that price movement is not well explained by a simple time-based trend.

Other Forecasting Options for AMERICAN HIGH-INCOME

Analyzing AMERICAN HIGH-INCOME's price movement through moving averages at different time horizons reveals whether short-term momentum aligns with the longer-term trend. Touches of the upper or lower band in AMERICAN HIGH-INCOME's chart signal overbought or oversold conditions.

AMERICAN HIGH-INCOME Comparable Funds

The related funds below provide a category-based comparison set for AMERICAN HIGH-INCOME's. Looking across similar funds helps show whether AMERICAN HIGH-INCOME's pricing and risk profile are typical for the category. Differences across peer funds often reflect mandate, region, income policy, or leverage choices. This category lens gives the comparison list a clearer purpose for AMERICAN HIGH-INCOME.

Invesco Equity And Eaton Vance Short The Hartford Balanced The Hartford Balanced The Hartford Balanced PIMCO Floating Income PIMCO Floating Income JPMorgan Strategic Income Thornburg Strategic Income Eaton Vance National American Airlines Group Alcoa Corp Apple Inc Best Buy Co Citigroup

Risk & Return

Correlation

AMERICAN HIGH-INCOME Market Strength Events

For investors tracking American High Income Municipal, market strength indicators offer quantitative evaluation of mutual fund behavior. When Rate of Change diverges from price direction, it often signals weakening momentum before a visible reversal in AMERICAN HIGH-INCOME.

	Rate Of Daily Change	1.0
	Day Median Price	15.37
	Day Typical Price	15.37
	Price Action Indicator	0.005
	Period Momentum Indicator	0.01
	Relative Strength Index	59.45

AMERICAN HIGH-INCOME Risk Indicators

Analyzing AMERICAN HIGH-INCOME's basic risk indicators provides a structured view of the risk-return trade-off for american mutual fund. Expected shortfall estimates the average loss in the worst-case tail scenarios, going beyond what standard deviation alone captures for AMERICAN HIGH-INCOME.

	Mean Deviation	0.1387
	Semi Deviation	0.1656
	Standard Deviation	0.2139
	Variance	0.0458
	Downside Variance	0.0943
	Semi Variance	0.0274
	Expected Short fall	-0.17

Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

	Naive Prediction
	Simple Exponential Smoothing
	Double Exponential Smoothing
	Triple Exponential Smoothing
	Simple Regression
	Polynomial Regression
	Simple Moving Average
	4 Period Moving Average
	8 Period Moving Average
	20 Period Moving Average