21Shares Bitcoin Etf Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| ABTC Etf | 23.39 1.17 5.27% |
Momentum 44
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using 21Shares Bitcoin hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of 21Shares Bitcoin ETP from the perspective of 21Shares Bitcoin response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of 21Shares Bitcoin ETP on the next trading day is expected to be 21.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 65.91. 21Shares Bitcoin after-hype prediction price | CHF 0.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
21Shares |
21Shares Bitcoin Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine 21Shares price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for 21Shares using various technical indicators. When you analyze 21Shares charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
21Shares Bitcoin Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of 21Shares Bitcoin ETP on the next trading day is expected to be 21.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.12, mean absolute percentage error of 4.44, and the sum of the absolute errors of 65.91.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict 21Shares Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that 21Shares Bitcoin's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
21Shares Bitcoin Etf Forecast Pattern
21Shares Bitcoin Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting 21Shares Bitcoin's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. 21Shares Bitcoin's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 15.89 and 27.91, respectively. We have considered 21Shares Bitcoin's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of 21Shares Bitcoin etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent 21Shares Bitcoin etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.2487 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.1171 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0444 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 65.9069 |
Predictive Modules for 21Shares Bitcoin
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as 21Shares Bitcoin ETP. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.21Shares Bitcoin Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
As far as predicting the price of 21Shares Bitcoin at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in 21Shares Bitcoin or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of 21Shares Bitcoin, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
21Shares Bitcoin Etf Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as 21Shares Bitcoin is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading 21Shares Bitcoin backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with 21Shares Bitcoin, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.20 | 6.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
23.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
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21Shares Bitcoin Hype Timeline
21Shares Bitcoin ETP is presently traded for 23.39on SIX Swiss Exchange of Switzerland. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. 21Shares is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.2%. %. The volatility of related hype on 21Shares Bitcoin is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 23.39. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any etf could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as various price indices.21Shares Bitcoin Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to 21Shares Bitcoin's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict 21Shares Bitcoin's future price movements. Getting to know how 21Shares Bitcoin's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how 21Shares Bitcoin may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| POLY | 21Shares Polygon ETP | 0.00 | 0 per month | 13.02 | (0) | 25.89 | (22.88) | 72.61 | |
| CBTC | 21Shares Bitcoin Core | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 4.53 | (5.05) | 14.86 | |
| ETHC | 21Shares Ethereum Core | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 7.35 | (6.77) | 18.54 | |
| AXTZ | 21Shares Tezos staking | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.90 | (0.01) | 7.34 | (6.50) | 22.98 | |
| ABTC-GBP | 21Shares Bitcoin ETP | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 5.21 | (4.44) | 12.82 | |
| ALGO-USD | 21Shares Algorand ETP | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 7.69 | (9.37) | 26.90 | |
| AXLM-USD | 21Shares Stellar ETP | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 8.67 | (8.43) | 22.71 | |
| AETH-USD | 21Shares Ethereum Staking | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 6.99 | (6.29) | 17.90 | |
| ABBA | 21Shares Bitcoin Suisse | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 5.24 | (4.93) | 15.64 |
Other Forecasting Options for 21Shares Bitcoin
For every potential investor in 21Shares, whether a beginner or expert, 21Shares Bitcoin's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. 21Shares Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in 21Shares. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying 21Shares Bitcoin's price trends.21Shares Bitcoin Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with 21Shares Bitcoin etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of 21Shares Bitcoin could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing 21Shares Bitcoin by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
21Shares Bitcoin Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how 21Shares Bitcoin etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading 21Shares Bitcoin shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying 21Shares Bitcoin etf market strength indicators, traders can identify 21Shares Bitcoin ETP entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
21Shares Bitcoin Risk Indicators
The analysis of 21Shares Bitcoin's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in 21Shares Bitcoin's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting 21shares etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.88 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 6.31 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 7.74 | |||
| Variance | 59.84 | |||
| Downside Variance | 41.03 | |||
| Semi Variance | 39.82 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (4.30) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for 21Shares Bitcoin
The number of cover stories for 21Shares Bitcoin depends on current market conditions and 21Shares Bitcoin's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that 21Shares Bitcoin is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about 21Shares Bitcoin's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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