Ayala Corp Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| AC Stock | 569.50 9.50 1.70% |
Ayala Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Ayala Corp stock prices and determine the direction of Ayala Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Ayala Corp's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The value of RSI of Ayala Corp's stock price is about 64. This suggests that the stock is rather overbought by investors at the present time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Ayala, making its price go up or down. Momentum 64
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Ayala Corp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ayala Corp from the perspective of Ayala Corp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ayala Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 569.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 8.63 and the sum of the absolute errors of 526.19. Ayala Corp after-hype prediction price | PHP 569.5 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Ayala |
Ayala Corp Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ayala price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ayala using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ayala charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Ayala Corp Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ayala Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 569.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 8.63, mean absolute percentage error of 102.73, and the sum of the absolute errors of 526.19.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ayala Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ayala Corp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Ayala Corp Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Ayala Corp | Ayala Corp Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Ayala Corp Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Ayala Corp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ayala Corp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 567.50 and 571.50, respectively. We have considered Ayala Corp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ayala Corp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ayala Corp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 122.7427 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -2.5664 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 8.6261 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0174 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 526.19 |
Predictive Modules for Ayala Corp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ayala Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Ayala Corp After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Ayala Corp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ayala Corp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ayala Corp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Ayala Corp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Ayala Corp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ayala Corp's historical news coverage. Ayala Corp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 567.50 and 571.50, respectively. We have considered Ayala Corp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Ayala Corp is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ayala Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
Ayala Corp Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ayala Corp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ayala Corp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ayala Corp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.50 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
569.50 | 569.50 | 0.00 |
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Ayala Corp Hype Timeline
Ayala Corp is presently traded for 569.50on Philippine Stock Exchange of Philippines. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Ayala is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.5%. %. The volatility of related hype on Ayala Corp is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 569.50. The company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 6.55. Ayala Corp had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next estimated press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ayala Corp to cross-verify your projections.Ayala Corp Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Ayala Corp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ayala Corp's future price movements. Getting to know how Ayala Corp's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ayala Corp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TFHI | Top Frontier Investment | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 5.16 | (6.40) | 27.28 | |
| BPI | Bank of the | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.78 | 0.09 | 3.16 | (2.93) | 16.35 | |
| BDO | BDO Unibank | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.97 | 0.03 | 4.08 | (3.64) | 10.64 | |
| EW | East West Banking | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.65 | 0.10 | 1.58 | (1.13) | 5.25 | |
| AT | Atlas Consolidated Mining | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.53 | 0.22 | 7.79 | (3.54) | 23.61 | |
| MRSGI | Metro Retail Stores | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.24 | 0 | 2.59 | (2.52) | 9.59 | |
| RCB | Rizal Commercial Banking | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 1.80 | (1.96) | 9.63 |
Other Forecasting Options for Ayala Corp
For every potential investor in Ayala, whether a beginner or expert, Ayala Corp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ayala Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ayala. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ayala Corp's price trends.Ayala Corp Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ayala Corp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ayala Corp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ayala Corp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ayala Corp Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ayala Corp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ayala Corp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ayala Corp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ayala Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Ayala Corp Risk Indicators
The analysis of Ayala Corp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ayala Corp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ayala stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.78 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.74 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.12 | |||
| Variance | 4.51 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.55 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.01 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.01) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Ayala Corp
The number of cover stories for Ayala Corp depends on current market conditions and Ayala Corp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ayala Corp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ayala Corp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Ayala Corp Short Properties
Ayala Corp's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ayala Corp's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ayala Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ayala Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ayala Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 619.7 M | |
| Dividends Paid | 7.5 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 98.9 B |
Other Information on Investing in Ayala Stock
Ayala Corp financial ratios help investors to determine whether Ayala Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Ayala with respect to the benefits of owning Ayala Corp security.