ArcelorMittal South Stock Forward View

ACL Stock   144.00  1.00  0.69%   
ArcelorMittal Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast ArcelorMittal South stock prices and determine the direction of ArcelorMittal South Africa's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of ArcelorMittal South's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, the value of RSI of ArcelorMittal South's share price is approaching 39. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling ArcelorMittal South, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 39

 Sell Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of ArcelorMittal South's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of ArcelorMittal South and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from ArcelorMittal South's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with ArcelorMittal South Africa, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using ArcelorMittal South hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of ArcelorMittal South Africa from the perspective of ArcelorMittal South response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of ArcelorMittal South Africa on the next trading day is expected to be 161.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.24 and the sum of the absolute errors of 258.50.

ArcelorMittal South after-hype prediction price

    
  ZAC 144.0  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ArcelorMittal South to cross-verify your projections.

ArcelorMittal South Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine ArcelorMittal price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for ArcelorMittal using various technical indicators. When you analyze ArcelorMittal charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for ArcelorMittal South is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of ArcelorMittal South Africa value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

ArcelorMittal South Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 22nd of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of ArcelorMittal South Africa on the next trading day is expected to be 161.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.24, mean absolute percentage error of 26.86, and the sum of the absolute errors of 258.50.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ArcelorMittal Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ArcelorMittal South's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

ArcelorMittal South Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest ArcelorMittal South  ArcelorMittal South Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

ArcelorMittal South Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting ArcelorMittal South's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ArcelorMittal South's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 157.76 and 165.27, respectively. We have considered ArcelorMittal South's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
144.00
157.76
Downside
161.51
Expected Value
165.27
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ArcelorMittal South stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ArcelorMittal South stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria121.4013
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation4.2377
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0326
SAESum of the absolute errors258.497
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of ArcelorMittal South Africa. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict ArcelorMittal South. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for ArcelorMittal South

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ArcelorMittal South. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
140.24144.00147.76
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
110.48114.24158.40
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
23.67140.10256.53
Details

ArcelorMittal South After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of ArcelorMittal South at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in ArcelorMittal South or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of ArcelorMittal South, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

ArcelorMittal South Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting ArcelorMittal South's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on ArcelorMittal South's historical news coverage. ArcelorMittal South's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 140.24 and 147.76, respectively. We have considered ArcelorMittal South's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
144.00
140.24
Downside
144.00
After-hype Price
147.76
Upside
ArcelorMittal South is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of ArcelorMittal South is based on 3 months time horizon.

ArcelorMittal South Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as ArcelorMittal South is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading ArcelorMittal South backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with ArcelorMittal South, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.24 
3.76
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
In 5 to 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
144.00
144.00
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

ArcelorMittal South Hype Timeline

ArcelorMittal South is presently traded for 144.00on Johannesburg Exchange of South Africa. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. ArcelorMittal is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.24%. %. The volatility of related hype on ArcelorMittal South is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 144.00. About 74.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.43. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. ArcelorMittal South recorded earning per share (EPS) of 7.22. The entity last dividend was issued on the 29th of August 2011. The firm had 1687:1480 split on the 11th of March 2002. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ArcelorMittal South to cross-verify your projections.

ArcelorMittal South Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to ArcelorMittal South's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict ArcelorMittal South's future price movements. Getting to know how ArcelorMittal South's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how ArcelorMittal South may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for ArcelorMittal South

For every potential investor in ArcelorMittal, whether a beginner or expert, ArcelorMittal South's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ArcelorMittal Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ArcelorMittal. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ArcelorMittal South's price trends.

ArcelorMittal South Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ArcelorMittal South stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ArcelorMittal South could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ArcelorMittal South by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

ArcelorMittal South Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ArcelorMittal South stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ArcelorMittal South shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ArcelorMittal South stock market strength indicators, traders can identify ArcelorMittal South Africa entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

ArcelorMittal South Risk Indicators

The analysis of ArcelorMittal South's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ArcelorMittal South's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting arcelormittal stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for ArcelorMittal South

The number of cover stories for ArcelorMittal South depends on current market conditions and ArcelorMittal South's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that ArcelorMittal South is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about ArcelorMittal South's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

ArcelorMittal South Short Properties

ArcelorMittal South's future price predictability will typically decrease when ArcelorMittal South's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of ArcelorMittal South Africa often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential ArcelorMittal South's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ArcelorMittal South's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding1.1 B
Cash And Short Term Investments3.2 B

Other Information on Investing in ArcelorMittal Stock

ArcelorMittal South financial ratios help investors to determine whether ArcelorMittal Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in ArcelorMittal with respect to the benefits of owning ArcelorMittal South security.