Acset Indonusa Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| ACST Stock | IDR 129.00 1.00 0.78% |
Acset Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of now, the value of RSI of Acset Indonusa's share price is approaching 36. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Acset Indonusa, making its price go up or down. Momentum 36
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Acset Indonusa hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Acset Indonusa Tbk from the perspective of Acset Indonusa response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Acset Indonusa Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 136.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 7.66 and the sum of the absolute errors of 467.38. Acset Indonusa after-hype prediction price | IDR 129.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Acset |
Acset Indonusa Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Acset price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Acset using various technical indicators. When you analyze Acset charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Acset Indonusa Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 23rd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Acset Indonusa Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 136.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 7.66, mean absolute percentage error of 128.78, and the sum of the absolute errors of 467.38.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Acset Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Acset Indonusa's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Acset Indonusa Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Acset Indonusa | Acset Indonusa Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Acset Indonusa Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Acset Indonusa's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Acset Indonusa's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 132.19 and 140.46, respectively. We have considered Acset Indonusa's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Acset Indonusa stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Acset Indonusa stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 122.9686 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 7.6619 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0527 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 467.377 |
Predictive Modules for Acset Indonusa
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Acset Indonusa Tbk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Acset Indonusa After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Acset Indonusa at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Acset Indonusa or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Acset Indonusa, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Acset Indonusa Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Acset Indonusa's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Acset Indonusa's historical news coverage. Acset Indonusa's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 124.86 and 133.14, respectively. We have considered Acset Indonusa's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Acset Indonusa is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Acset Indonusa Tbk is based on 3 months time horizon.
Acset Indonusa Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Acset Indonusa is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Acset Indonusa backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Acset Indonusa, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.00 | 4.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
129.00 | 129.00 | 0.00 |
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Acset Indonusa Hype Timeline
Acset Indonusa Tbk is presently traded for 129.00on Jakarta Exchange of Indonesia. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Acset is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.0%. %. The volatility of related hype on Acset Indonusa is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 129.00. About 88.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The book value of Acset Indonusa was presently reported as 67.68. The company recorded a loss per share of 63.64. Acset Indonusa Tbk last dividend was issued on the 23rd of April 2019. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Acset Indonusa to cross-verify your projections.Acset Indonusa Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Acset Indonusa's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Acset Indonusa's future price movements. Getting to know how Acset Indonusa's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Acset Indonusa may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| KBLV | First Media Tbk | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 6.60 | (6.62) | 23.10 | |
| MSKY | Mnc Sky Vision | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.76 | (0) | 6.17 | (6.60) | 49.03 | |
| VERN | PT Verona Indah | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 7.27 | (4.29) | 20.95 | |
| VIVA | Visi Media Asia | 0.00 | 0 per month | 6.57 | 0.10 | 9.62 | (10.00) | 20.00 | |
| ABBA | Mahaka Media Tbk | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 9.09 | (8.47) | 19.72 | |
| FORU | Fortune Indonesia Tbk | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.54 | 0.12 | 16.13 | (7.14) | 39.57 | |
| MARI | Mahaka Radio Integra | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.77 | 0.05 | 8.82 | (8.70) | 20.00 | |
| TMPO | Tempo Inti Media | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.78 | (3.50) | 17.49 | |
| LCKM | LCK Global Kedaton | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.78 | (0.01) | 8.15 | (8.15) | 34.48 |
Other Forecasting Options for Acset Indonusa
For every potential investor in Acset, whether a beginner or expert, Acset Indonusa's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Acset Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Acset. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Acset Indonusa's price trends.Acset Indonusa Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Acset Indonusa stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Acset Indonusa could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Acset Indonusa by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Acset Indonusa Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Acset Indonusa stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Acset Indonusa shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Acset Indonusa stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Acset Indonusa Tbk entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Acset Indonusa Risk Indicators
The analysis of Acset Indonusa's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Acset Indonusa's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting acset stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.41 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.87 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.23 | |||
| Variance | 17.87 | |||
| Downside Variance | 14.06 | |||
| Semi Variance | 8.25 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.85) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Acset Indonusa
The number of cover stories for Acset Indonusa depends on current market conditions and Acset Indonusa's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Acset Indonusa is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Acset Indonusa's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Acset Indonusa Short Properties
Acset Indonusa's future price predictability will typically decrease when Acset Indonusa's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Acset Indonusa Tbk often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Acset Indonusa's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Acset Indonusa's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 12.7 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 471.7 B |
Other Information on Investing in Acset Stock
Acset Indonusa financial ratios help investors to determine whether Acset Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Acset with respect to the benefits of owning Acset Indonusa security.