Advisors Capital Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| ACTIX Fund | USD 9.57 0.01 0.10% |
Advisors Mutual Fund outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Advisors Capital's share price is at 52. This suggests that the mutual fund is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Advisors Capital, making its price go up or down. Momentum 52
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Advisors Capital hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Advisors Capital Tactical from the perspective of Advisors Capital response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Advisors Capital Tactical on the next trading day is expected to be 9.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.90. Advisors Capital after-hype prediction price | USD 9.57 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Advisors |
Advisors Capital Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Advisors price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Advisors using various technical indicators. When you analyze Advisors charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Advisors Capital Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Advisors Capital Tactical on the next trading day is expected to be 9.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0004, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.90.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Advisors Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Advisors Capital's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Advisors Capital Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Advisors Capital | Advisors Capital Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Advisors Capital Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Advisors Capital's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Advisors Capital's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.39 and 9.75, respectively. We have considered Advisors Capital's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Advisors Capital mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Advisors Capital mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 108.3455 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -8.0E-4 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.015 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0016 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.9 |
Predictive Modules for Advisors Capital
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Advisors Capital Tactical. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Advisors Capital After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Advisors Capital at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Advisors Capital or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Advisors Capital, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Advisors Capital Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Advisors Capital's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Advisors Capital's historical news coverage. Advisors Capital's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 9.39 and 9.75, respectively. We have considered Advisors Capital's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Advisors Capital is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Advisors Capital Tactical is based on 3 months time horizon.
Advisors Capital Mutual Fund Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Advisors Capital is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Advisors Capital backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Advisors Capital, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.01 | 0.18 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 13 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 13 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
9.57 | 9.57 | 0.00 |
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Advisors Capital Hype Timeline
Advisors Capital Tactical is presently traded for 9.57. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.09, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.04. Advisors is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 1.92%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.01%. %. The volatility of related hype on Advisors Capital is about 4.37%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 9.53. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.74. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Advisors Capital Tactical last dividend was issued on the 22nd of October 1970. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 13 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Advisors Capital to cross-verify your projections.Advisors Capital Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Advisors Capital's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Advisors Capital's future price movements. Getting to know how Advisors Capital's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Advisors Capital may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TPVIX | Timothy Small Cap Value | (0.12) | 1 per month | 0.66 | 0.08 | 2.37 | (1.50) | 7.78 | |
| DSMLX | Touchstone Large Pany | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 1.65 | (2.32) | 5.12 | |
| FTGWX | Salient Tactical Growth | (14.93) | 6 per month | 0.40 | 0.1 | 0.96 | (0.93) | 2.59 | |
| ASQIX | Small Pany Fund | (6.82) | 1 per month | 0.83 | 0.09 | 2.05 | (1.67) | 4.61 | |
| TASCX | Third Avenue Small Cap | (0.28) | 1 per month | 0.53 | 0.09 | 1.95 | (1.00) | 4.25 | |
| TVSVX | Third Avenue Small Cap | 0.46 | 1 per month | 0.46 | 0.12 | 2.11 | (1.00) | 7.10 | |
| DNINX | Dunham International Stock | 0.05 | 6 per month | 1.85 | 0.04 | 1.40 | (1.23) | 10.32 | |
| NCBVX | Prudential Qma Mid Cap | (11.79) | 8 per month | 0.58 | 0.04 | 1.57 | (1.26) | 3.36 | |
| WAMFX | Walden Midcap Fund | (7.77) | 2 per month | 0.49 | 0.07 | 1.60 | (1.00) | 8.33 | |
| TGUNX | Tcw New America | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Other Forecasting Options for Advisors Capital
For every potential investor in Advisors, whether a beginner or expert, Advisors Capital's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Advisors Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Advisors. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Advisors Capital's price trends.Advisors Capital Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Advisors Capital mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Advisors Capital could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Advisors Capital by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Advisors Capital Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Advisors Capital mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Advisors Capital shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Advisors Capital mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Advisors Capital Tactical entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 9.57 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 9.57 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.01) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.01) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 52.97 |
Advisors Capital Risk Indicators
The analysis of Advisors Capital's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Advisors Capital's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting advisors mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.1336 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.1544 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.1785 | |||
| Variance | 0.0318 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.0449 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.0238 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.20) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Advisors Capital
The number of cover stories for Advisors Capital depends on current market conditions and Advisors Capital's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Advisors Capital is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Advisors Capital's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
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Other Information on Investing in Advisors Mutual Fund
Advisors Capital financial ratios help investors to determine whether Advisors Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Advisors with respect to the benefits of owning Advisors Capital security.
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