Actuate Therapeutics Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| ACTU Stock | 5.49 0.04 0.73% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Actuate Therapeutics Common on the next trading day is expected to be 4.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37 and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.50. Actuate Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the rsi of Actuate Therapeutics' share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.30) | EPS Estimate Current Year (1.15) | EPS Estimate Next Year (1.28) | Wall Street Target Price 26.75 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.32) |
Using Actuate Therapeutics hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Actuate Therapeutics Common from the perspective of Actuate Therapeutics response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Actuate Therapeutics Common on the next trading day is expected to be 4.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37 and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.50. Actuate Therapeutics after-hype prediction price | USD 5.6 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Actuate Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections. Actuate Therapeutics Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Actuate price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Actuate using various technical indicators. When you analyze Actuate charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Actuate Therapeutics Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Actuate Therapeutics Common on the next trading day is expected to be 4.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37, mean absolute percentage error of 0.19, and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.50.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Actuate Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Actuate Therapeutics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Actuate Therapeutics Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Actuate Therapeutics | Actuate Therapeutics Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Actuate Therapeutics Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Actuate Therapeutics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Actuate Therapeutics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.57 and 8.85, respectively. We have considered Actuate Therapeutics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Actuate Therapeutics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Actuate Therapeutics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.4638 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3689 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0575 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 22.5015 |
Predictive Modules for Actuate Therapeutics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Actuate Therapeutics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Actuate Therapeutics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Actuate Therapeutics After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Actuate Therapeutics at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Actuate Therapeutics or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Actuate Therapeutics, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Actuate Therapeutics Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Actuate Therapeutics' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Actuate Therapeutics' historical news coverage. Actuate Therapeutics' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1.46 and 9.74, respectively. We have considered Actuate Therapeutics' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Actuate Therapeutics is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Actuate Therapeutics is based on 3 months time horizon.
Actuate Therapeutics Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Actuate Therapeutics is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Actuate Therapeutics backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Actuate Therapeutics, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.39 | 4.14 | 0.11 | 0.04 | 6 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
5.49 | 5.60 | 2.00 |
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Actuate Therapeutics Hype Timeline
Actuate Therapeutics is presently traded for 5.49. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.11, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.04. Actuate is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 5.6 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 2.0%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.39%. The volatility of related hype on Actuate Therapeutics is about 3763.64%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 5.45. Net Loss for the year was (27.29 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Actuate Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections.Actuate Therapeutics Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Actuate Therapeutics' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Actuate Therapeutics' future price movements. Getting to know how Actuate Therapeutics' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Actuate Therapeutics may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MCRB | Seres Therapeutics | 0.30 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 9.13 | (7.64) | 54.10 | |
| SPRO | Spero Therapeutics | (0.04) | 9 per month | 2.69 | 0.03 | 3.64 | (5.04) | 13.07 | |
| VTGN | VistaGen Therapeutics | (0.01) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 7.93 | (12.80) | 96.59 | |
| APLT | Applied Therapeutics | 0.00 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 13.33 | (15.73) | 85.17 | |
| ELTX | Elicio Therapeutics | 0.26 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 5.50 | (4.15) | 21.98 | |
| NKTX | Nkarta Inc | 0.02 | 8 per month | 3.24 | 0.01 | 6.64 | (5.31) | 16.16 | |
| VOR | Vor Biopharma | (1.88) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 16.20 | (11.01) | 52.41 | |
| ALEC | Alector | (0.06) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 5.63 | (8.33) | 58.73 | |
| MOLN | Molecular Partners AG | 0.18 | 10 per month | 3.40 | 0 | 4.73 | (5.45) | 26.47 | |
| PEPG | PepGen | 0.13 | 8 per month | 6.00 | 0.05 | 10.32 | (9.44) | 31.03 |
Other Forecasting Options for Actuate Therapeutics
For every potential investor in Actuate, whether a beginner or expert, Actuate Therapeutics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Actuate Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Actuate. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Actuate Therapeutics' price trends.Actuate Therapeutics Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Actuate Therapeutics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Actuate Therapeutics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Actuate Therapeutics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Actuate Therapeutics Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Actuate Therapeutics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Actuate Therapeutics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Actuate Therapeutics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Actuate Therapeutics Common entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Actuate Therapeutics Risk Indicators
The analysis of Actuate Therapeutics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Actuate Therapeutics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting actuate stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.99 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.96 | |||
| Variance | 15.68 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Actuate Therapeutics
The number of cover stories for Actuate Therapeutics depends on current market conditions and Actuate Therapeutics' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Actuate Therapeutics is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Actuate Therapeutics' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Actuate Therapeutics Short Properties
Actuate Therapeutics' future price predictability will typically decrease when Actuate Therapeutics' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Actuate Therapeutics Common often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Actuate Therapeutics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Actuate Therapeutics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 19.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 8.6 M | |
| Shares Float | 8.4 M |
Additional Tools for Actuate Stock Analysis
When running Actuate Therapeutics' price analysis, check to measure Actuate Therapeutics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Actuate Therapeutics is operating at the current time. Most of Actuate Therapeutics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Actuate Therapeutics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Actuate Therapeutics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Actuate Therapeutics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.