Acme United Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| ACU Stock | USD 41.33 0.69 1.64% |
Acme Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Acme United's share price is at 51. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Acme United, making its price go up or down. Momentum 51
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.15) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.43 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.41 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.62 | Wall Street Target Price 50 |
Using Acme United hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Acme United from the perspective of Acme United response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Acme United on the next trading day is expected to be 43.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.27 and the sum of the absolute errors of 77.42. Acme United after-hype prediction price | USD 42.05 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Acme United to cross-verify your projections. Acme United Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Acme price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Acme using various technical indicators. When you analyze Acme charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Acme United Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Acme United on the next trading day is expected to be 43.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.27, mean absolute percentage error of 2.21, and the sum of the absolute errors of 77.42.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Acme Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Acme United's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Acme United Stock Forecast Pattern
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Acme United Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Acme United's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Acme United's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 41.43 and 45.07, respectively. We have considered Acme United's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Acme United stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Acme United stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.904 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.2692 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0327 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 77.42 |
Predictive Modules for Acme United
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Acme United. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Acme United's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Acme United After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Acme United at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Acme United or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Acme United, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Acme United Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Acme United's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Acme United's historical news coverage. Acme United's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 40.23 and 43.87, respectively. We have considered Acme United's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Acme United is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Acme United is based on 3 months time horizon.
Acme United Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Acme United is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Acme United backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Acme United, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.17 | 1.82 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 9 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
41.33 | 42.05 | 0.07 |
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Acme United Hype Timeline
On the 27th of January Acme United is traded for 41.33. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.02. Acme is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 42.05 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price appreciation on the next news is forecasted to be 0.07%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.17%. The volatility of related hype on Acme United is about 1750.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 41.35. The company reported the last year's revenue of 194.49 M. Total Income to common stockholders was 10.02 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 77.03 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Acme United to cross-verify your projections.Acme United Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Acme United's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Acme United's future price movements. Getting to know how Acme United's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Acme United may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SKIN | Beauty Health Co | 0.01 | 9 per month | 3.59 | 0.05 | 6.94 | (5.92) | 19.17 | |
| YOUL | Youlife Group American | (0.24) | 4 per month | 8.05 | 0.02 | 11.50 | (12.43) | 82.82 | |
| LGCY | Legacy Education | (0.09) | 7 per month | 3.19 | 0.02 | 6.29 | (5.41) | 22.37 | |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center | 0.11 | 9 per month | 3.11 | 0.04 | 5.63 | (6.16) | 20.89 | |
| ZVIA | Zevia Pbc | 0.02 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.91 | (4.80) | 25.76 | |
| VSA | TCTM Kids IT | (0.25) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.28) | 13.91 | (23.98) | 95.75 | |
| EPSM | Epsium Enterprise Limited | (0.09) | 32 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 16.99 | (19.12) | 110.67 | |
| SKIL | Skillsoft Corp | 0.79 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 13.00 | (14.16) | 39.40 | |
| HFFG | Hf Foods Group | 0.02 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 4.65 | (4.70) | 16.37 | |
| AGCC | Agencia Comercial Spirits | 0.76 | 4 per month | 8.63 | 0.12 | 21.44 | (14.92) | 50.01 |
Other Forecasting Options for Acme United
For every potential investor in Acme, whether a beginner or expert, Acme United's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Acme Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Acme. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Acme United's price trends.Acme United Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Acme United stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Acme United could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Acme United by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Acme United Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Acme United stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Acme United shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Acme United stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Acme United entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 41.33 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 41.33 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.35) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.69) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 51.64 |
Acme United Risk Indicators
The analysis of Acme United's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Acme United's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting acme stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.3 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.27 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.77 | |||
| Variance | 3.14 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.19 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.62 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.55) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Acme United
The number of cover stories for Acme United depends on current market conditions and Acme United's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Acme United is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Acme United's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Acme United Short Properties
Acme United's future price predictability will typically decrease when Acme United's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Acme United often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Acme United's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Acme United's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 4.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 6.4 M |
Additional Tools for Acme Stock Analysis
When running Acme United's price analysis, check to measure Acme United's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Acme United is operating at the current time. Most of Acme United's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Acme United's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Acme United's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Acme United to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.