Akasha Wira Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

ADES Stock  IDR 9,650  175.00  1.78%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Akasha Wira International on the next trading day is expected to be 9,625 with a mean absolute deviation of 133.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7,850. Akasha Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Triple exponential smoothing for Akasha Wira - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Akasha Wira prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Akasha Wira price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Akasha Wira International.

Akasha Wira Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Akasha Wira International on the next trading day is expected to be 9,625 with a mean absolute deviation of 133.05, mean absolute percentage error of 41,504, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7,850.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Akasha Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Akasha Wira's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Akasha Wira Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Akasha WiraAkasha Wira Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Akasha Wira Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Akasha Wira's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Akasha Wira's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9,623 and 9,627, respectively. We have considered Akasha Wira's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
9,650
9,625
Expected Value
9,627
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Akasha Wira stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Akasha Wira stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -19.4915
MADMean absolute deviation133.0508
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0125
SAESum of the absolute errors7850.0
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Akasha Wira observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Akasha Wira International observations.

Predictive Modules for Akasha Wira

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Akasha Wira International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
9,6489,6509,652
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
8,5088,51010,615
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
9,19010,45711,725
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Akasha Wira

For every potential investor in Akasha, whether a beginner or expert, Akasha Wira's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Akasha Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Akasha. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Akasha Wira's price trends.

Akasha Wira Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Akasha Wira stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Akasha Wira could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Akasha Wira by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Akasha Wira International Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Akasha Wira's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Akasha Wira's current price.

Akasha Wira Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Akasha Wira stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Akasha Wira shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Akasha Wira stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Akasha Wira International entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Akasha Wira Risk Indicators

The analysis of Akasha Wira's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Akasha Wira's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting akasha stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Akasha Stock

Akasha Wira financial ratios help investors to determine whether Akasha Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Akasha with respect to the benefits of owning Akasha Wira security.