ADS TEC Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| ADSEW Stock | USD 0.80 0.20 20.00% |
ADS Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the relative strength index (RSI) of ADS TEC's share price is approaching 48. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling ADS TEC, making its price go up or down. Momentum 48
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.82) |
Using ADS TEC hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of ADS TEC ENERGY PLC from the perspective of ADS TEC response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of ADS TEC ENERGY PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 0.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.24. ADS TEC after-hype prediction price | USD 0.52 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ADS TEC to cross-verify your projections. ADS TEC Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine ADS price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for ADS using various technical indicators. When you analyze ADS charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the ADS TEC's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2018-03-31 | Previous Quarter 22.9 M | Current Value 37.9 M | Quarterly Volatility 31.5 M |
ADS TEC Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of ADS TEC ENERGY PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 0.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.24.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ADS Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ADS TEC's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
ADS TEC Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest ADS TEC | ADS TEC Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
ADS TEC Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting ADS TEC's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ADS TEC's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 13.59, respectively. We have considered ADS TEC's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ADS TEC stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ADS TEC stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.2585 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0683 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0781 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 4.2372 |
Predictive Modules for ADS TEC
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ADS TEC ENERGY. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ADS TEC's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
ADS TEC After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of ADS TEC at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in ADS TEC or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of ADS TEC, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
ADS TEC Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting ADS TEC's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on ADS TEC's historical news coverage. ADS TEC's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.03 and 13.23, respectively. We have considered ADS TEC's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
ADS TEC is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of ADS TEC ENERGY is based on 3 months time horizon.
ADS TEC Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as ADS TEC is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading ADS TEC backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with ADS TEC, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.69 | 12.71 | 0.28 | 0.03 | 30 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 30 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
0.80 | 0.52 | 35.00 |
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ADS TEC Hype Timeline
ADS TEC ENERGY is presently traded for 0.80. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.28, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.03. ADS is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 0.52. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price reduction on the next news is expected to be -35.0%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.69%. The volatility of related hype on ADS TEC is about 30261.9%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.77. The company recorded a loss per share of 100.83. ADS TEC ENERGY had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 30 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ADS TEC to cross-verify your projections.ADS TEC Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to ADS TEC's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict ADS TEC's future price movements. Getting to know how ADS TEC's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how ADS TEC may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| IPWR | Ideal Power | 0.30 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 9.50 | (8.85) | 36.33 | |
| GWH | ESS Tech | 0.04 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 7.57 | (9.24) | 61.03 | |
| GPUS | Hyperscale Data | (0.01) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 19.05 | (11.76) | 62.50 | |
| APWC | Asia Pacific Wire | (0.06) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 5.08 | (4.23) | 14.43 | |
| PPSI | Pioneer Power Solutions | 0.40 | 8 per month | 4.14 | 0.02 | 8.30 | (6.91) | 21.83 | |
| SPCB | Supercom | 0.16 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 6.59 | (6.72) | 23.83 | |
| AP | Ampco Pittsburgh | 0.13 | 8 per month | 2.80 | 0.28 | 12.36 | (5.26) | 22.67 | |
| SKYH | Sky Harbour Group | (0.19) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.60 | (3.32) | 12.01 | |
| OESX | Orion Energy Systems | (0.88) | 7 per month | 4.51 | 0.14 | 14.72 | (7.43) | 39.21 | |
| SIF | SIFCO Industries | (0.31) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 5.96 | (5.38) | 19.66 |
Other Forecasting Options for ADS TEC
For every potential investor in ADS, whether a beginner or expert, ADS TEC's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ADS Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ADS. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ADS TEC's price trends.ADS TEC Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ADS TEC stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ADS TEC could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ADS TEC by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
ADS TEC Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ADS TEC stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ADS TEC shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ADS TEC stock market strength indicators, traders can identify ADS TEC ENERGY PLC entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
ADS TEC Risk Indicators
The analysis of ADS TEC's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ADS TEC's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ads stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 8.03 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 8.84 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 12.22 | |||
| Variance | 149.23 | |||
| Downside Variance | 130.69 | |||
| Semi Variance | 78.18 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (13.48) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for ADS TEC
The number of cover stories for ADS TEC depends on current market conditions and ADS TEC's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that ADS TEC is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about ADS TEC's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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ADS TEC Short Properties
ADS TEC's future price predictability will typically decrease when ADS TEC's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of ADS TEC ENERGY PLC often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential ADS TEC's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ADS TEC's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 51.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 22.9 M |
Additional Tools for ADS Stock Analysis
When running ADS TEC's price analysis, check to measure ADS TEC's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ADS TEC is operating at the current time. Most of ADS TEC's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ADS TEC's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ADS TEC's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ADS TEC to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.