American Equity Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| AELDelisted Stock | USD 53.75 0.10 0.19% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of American Equity Investment on the next trading day is expected to be 55.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.45 and the sum of the absolute errors of 88.27. American Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
American |
American Equity Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 27th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of American Equity Investment on the next trading day is expected to be 55.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.45, mean absolute percentage error of 3.92, and the sum of the absolute errors of 88.27.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict American Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that American Equity's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
American Equity Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest American Equity | American Equity Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of American Equity stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent American Equity stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.4773 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.4471 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0322 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 88.2735 |
Predictive Modules for American Equity
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Equity Inve. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Equity's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
American Equity Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with American Equity stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of American Equity could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing American Equity by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
American Equity Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how American Equity stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading American Equity shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying American Equity stock market strength indicators, traders can identify American Equity Investment entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
American Equity Risk Indicators
The analysis of American Equity's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in American Equity's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting american stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.4 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.6523 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.77 | |||
| Variance | 7.65 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.78 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.4256 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.62) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Other Consideration for investing in American Stock
If you are still planning to invest in American Equity Inve check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the American Equity's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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