Allianzgi Emerging Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Regression

AEMOX Fund  USD 37.82  0.35  0.93%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Allianzgi Emerging Markets on the next trading day is expected to be 36.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.88 and the sum of the absolute errors of 54.26. Allianzgi Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Allianzgi Emerging's share price is above 70 at this time. This suggests that the mutual fund is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Allianzgi, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 73

 Buy Stretched

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Allianzgi Emerging's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Allianzgi Emerging Markets, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Allianzgi Emerging hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Allianzgi Emerging Markets from the perspective of Allianzgi Emerging response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Allianzgi Emerging Markets on the next trading day is expected to be 36.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.88 and the sum of the absolute errors of 54.26.

Allianzgi Emerging after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 37.82  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Allianzgi Emerging to cross-verify your projections.

Allianzgi Emerging Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Allianzgi price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Allianzgi using various technical indicators. When you analyze Allianzgi charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Allianzgi Emerging price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Allianzgi Emerging Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Allianzgi Emerging Markets on the next trading day is expected to be 36.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.88, mean absolute percentage error of 0.88, and the sum of the absolute errors of 54.26.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Allianzgi Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Allianzgi Emerging's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Allianzgi Emerging Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Allianzgi EmergingAllianzgi Emerging Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Allianzgi Emerging Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Allianzgi Emerging's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Allianzgi Emerging's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 35.63 and 37.17, respectively. We have considered Allianzgi Emerging's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
37.82
36.40
Expected Value
37.17
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Allianzgi Emerging mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Allianzgi Emerging mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.819
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.8751
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0252
SAESum of the absolute errors54.257
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Allianzgi Emerging Markets historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Allianzgi Emerging

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Allianzgi Emerging. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
37.0337.8238.61
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
34.0440.4841.27
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
33.0935.7838.47
Details

Allianzgi Emerging After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Allianzgi Emerging at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Allianzgi Emerging or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Allianzgi Emerging, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Allianzgi Emerging Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Allianzgi Emerging's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Allianzgi Emerging's historical news coverage. Allianzgi Emerging's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 37.03 and 38.61, respectively. We have considered Allianzgi Emerging's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
37.82
37.82
After-hype Price
38.61
Upside
Allianzgi Emerging is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Allianzgi Emerging is based on 3 months time horizon.

Allianzgi Emerging Mutual Fund Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Allianzgi Emerging is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Allianzgi Emerging backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Allianzgi Emerging, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.17 
0.77
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
In 5 to 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
37.82
37.82
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Allianzgi Emerging Hype Timeline

Allianzgi Emerging is presently traded for 37.82. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Allianzgi is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.17%. %. The volatility of related hype on Allianzgi Emerging is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 37.82. The company last dividend was issued on the 19th of December 1970. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next estimated press release will be in 5 to 10 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Allianzgi Emerging to cross-verify your projections.

Allianzgi Emerging Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Allianzgi Emerging's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Allianzgi Emerging's future price movements. Getting to know how Allianzgi Emerging's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Allianzgi Emerging may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
ADJPXAllianzgi Nfj Dividend 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
AVAMXAllianzgi Retirement 2040 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
NFJAXAllianzgi Nfj International 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
NFJCXAllianzgi Nfj International 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
NFJIXAllianzgi Nfj International 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
PNVRXAllianzgi Nfj Small Cap 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
NFJPXAllianzgi Nfj International 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
AMMAXAllianzgi Emerging Markets 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
GUCAXAllianzgi Ultra Micro 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 

Other Forecasting Options for Allianzgi Emerging

For every potential investor in Allianzgi, whether a beginner or expert, Allianzgi Emerging's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Allianzgi Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Allianzgi. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Allianzgi Emerging's price trends.

Allianzgi Emerging Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Allianzgi Emerging mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Allianzgi Emerging could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Allianzgi Emerging by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Allianzgi Emerging Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Allianzgi Emerging mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Allianzgi Emerging shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Allianzgi Emerging mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Allianzgi Emerging Markets entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Allianzgi Emerging Risk Indicators

The analysis of Allianzgi Emerging's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Allianzgi Emerging's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting allianzgi mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Allianzgi Emerging

The number of cover stories for Allianzgi Emerging depends on current market conditions and Allianzgi Emerging's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Allianzgi Emerging is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Allianzgi Emerging's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

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Other Information on Investing in Allianzgi Mutual Fund

Allianzgi Emerging financial ratios help investors to determine whether Allianzgi Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Allianzgi with respect to the benefits of owning Allianzgi Emerging security.
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