Alliance Entertainment Stock Forward View

Key Indicators . Naive Prediction . Stocks . USA . 
Stock . Alliance Entertainment Holding
AENT Stock   7.31  -0.09  -1.22%   
Naive Prediction is applied to Alliance Entertainment Holding's daily closing prices, and the resulting forecast is presented with accuracy metrics. Wide deviation between fitted and observed values suggests the model's assumptions may not match current market conditions. These values update automatically with each new closing price. The Naive Prediction model projects Alliance Entertainment at 6.54 for the next trading day, below the most recent closing price. This Naive Prediction output is provided as analytical reference and does not constitute a trading recommendation.

Alliance Entertainment Cash Forecast

Forecasting cash for Alliance Entertainment requires analysts to apply different statistical methods to find hidden patterns. This approach detects underlying patterns in Alliance Entertainment's financial data to predict future market behavior. Cash flow projections for Alliance Entertainment cover base, optimistic, and pessimistic scenarios.
 
Cash  
 First Reported
2021-03-31
 Previous Quarter
3.22 million
 Current Value
1.38 million
 Quarterly Volatility
1.06 million
Macro event markers
 
Covid
 
Interest Hikes
A naive forecasting model for Alliance Entertainment is a special case of the moving average where the smoothing period is one. The forecast for Alliance Entertainment Holding on a given trading day is simply the observed closing price of the previous period. Because it uses only a single lag, this model is limited to one-period-ahead forecasts.

Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 8th of May

Over a 90-day horizon, the Naive Prediction model forecasts Alliance Entertainment at 6.54 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.03 , and sum of absolute errors of 13.67 .
This represents a tight forecast with good short-term tracking of Alliance Entertainment's price movement. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.

Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Alliance Entertainment  Alliance Entertainment Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Forecasted Value

Alliance Entertainment's next-session forecast estimates practical downside and upside boundaries based on the model's historical fit. The current forecast range spans downside near 2.24 and upside near 10.83. The wide range indicates elevated uncertainty in short-term projections.
Market Value
7.31
2.24
Downside
6.54
Expected Value
10.83
Upside
Target Odds

Model Predictive Factors

The table below summarizes the Naive Prediction model's error metrics for Alliance Entertainment stock. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.498
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2241
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0347
SAESum of the absolute errors13.6704
The naive model produces a tight forecast range but offers no smoothing of noise or trend detection. It serves primarily as a baseline benchmark — if a more complex model cannot outperform the naive forecast, it may indicate that Alliance Entertainment price movements are largely random over the selected horizon.

Other Forecasting Options for Alliance Entertainment

Alliance Entertainment's daily price returns decompose into trend, seasonal, and residual components. Divergence between short-term and long-term averages in Alliance often signals an upcoming reversal or acceleration. Gap analysis of Alliance Stock data examines overnight jumps between Alliance Entertainment's closing and opening prices.
Naive Prediction
Simple Exponential Smoothing
Double Exponential Smoothing
Triple Exponential Smoothing
Simple Regression
Polynomial Regression
Simple Moving Average
4 Period Moving Average
8 Period Moving Average
20 Period Moving Average

Alliance Entertainment Related Equities

The peer firms below within the Consumer Discretionary space frame Alliance Entertainment's pricing and running costs in context. Revenue and margin checks across this group help investors set expectations for Alliance Entertainment's results. Sector-wide trends across this peer group split company-level factors from broader forces. The data below allows side-by-side review across the most common financial metrics.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Alliance Entertainment Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators for Alliance Entertainment stock provide a framework for assessing security responsiveness. A rising Accumulation/Distribution line alongside rising price confirms institutional buying interest in Alliance Entertainment. Median and Typical Price smooth out intraday extremes, providing a cleaner reference level for evaluating Alliance Entertainment sessions.
Accumulation Distribution508.46
Daily Balance Of Power-0.24
Rate Of Daily Change0.99
Day Median Price7.49
Day Typical Price7.43
Price Action Indicator-0.23
Period Momentum Indicator-0.09
Relative Strength Index51.53

Alliance Entertainment Risk Indicators

Assessing Alliance Entertainment's risk indicators is a structured way to evaluate the risk-return trade-off for alliance stock. The level of risk embedded in Alliance Entertainment's feeds directly into exposure calibration. Comparing Alliance Entertainment's downside variance to total variance reveals whether the risk profile is skewed toward losses.
Mean Deviation3.15
Semi Deviation4.81
Standard Deviation4.59
Variance21.08
Downside Variance25.94
Semi Variance23.18
Expected Short fall-3.13
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Alliance Entertainment Short Properties

Short-interest signals around Alliance Entertainment reveal whether skeptical positioning is starting to pressure price predictability and market tone. This is applicable when the question is whether bearish pressure is starting to shape the market's reaction function.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding50.84 million
Cash And Short Term Investments1.24 million

Additional Tools for Alliance Stock Analysis

Commodity DirectoryFind actively traded commodities issued by global exchangesBalance Of PowerCheck stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratiosStock ScreenerFind equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook.Fundamental AnalysisView fundamental data based on most recent published financial statementsOdds Of BankruptcyGet analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 yearsPortfolio RebalancingAnalyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targetsPortfolio ManagerState of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capitalAnalyst AdviceAnalyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories
Tools
Analysis
Directory
Company
2026 Macroaxis LLC Made with in San Francisco
Privacy Terms Widgets Feedback
Macroaxis is not a registered investment advisor or broker/dealer. All investments, including stocks, funds, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies, are speculative and involve substantial risk of loss. We encourage our investors to invest carefully. Much of our information is derived directly from data published by companies or submitted to governmental agencies which we believe are reliable, but are without our independent verification. Therefore, we cannot assure you that the information is accurate or complete. We do not in any way warrant or guarantee the success of any action you take in reliance on our statements or recommendations. Also, note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. All investments carry risk, and all investment decisions of an individual remain the responsibility of that individual. There is no guarantee that systems, indicators, or signals will result in profits or that they will not result in losses. All investors are advised to fully understand all risks associated with any investing they choose to do. Hypothetical or simulated performance is not indicative of future results. We make no representations or warranties that any investor will, or is likely to, achieve profits similar to those shown because hypothetical or simulated performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. For more information please visit our terms and conditions page.