Anglo-Eastern Plantations Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

AEP Stock   660.00  8.00  1.20%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Anglo Eastern Plantations PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 648.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 7.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 429.30. Anglo-Eastern Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Anglo-Eastern Plantations stock prices and determine the direction of Anglo Eastern Plantations PLC's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Anglo-Eastern Plantations' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
At present, Anglo-Eastern Plantations' Total Stockholder Equity is projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Retained Earnings is expected to grow to about 868 M, whereas Short and Long Term Debt Total is forecasted to decline to about 958.5 K.
A naive forecasting model for Anglo-Eastern Plantations is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Anglo Eastern Plantations PLC value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Anglo-Eastern Plantations Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Anglo Eastern Plantations PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 648.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 7.04, mean absolute percentage error of 79.65, and the sum of the absolute errors of 429.30.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Anglo-Eastern Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Anglo-Eastern Plantations' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Anglo-Eastern Plantations Stock Forecast Pattern

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Anglo-Eastern Plantations Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Anglo-Eastern Plantations' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Anglo-Eastern Plantations' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 646.74 and 649.69, respectively. We have considered Anglo-Eastern Plantations' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
660.00
646.74
Downside
648.21
Expected Value
649.69
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Anglo-Eastern Plantations stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Anglo-Eastern Plantations stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria122.4882
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation7.0377
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0107
SAESum of the absolute errors429.3013
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Anglo Eastern Plantations PLC. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Anglo-Eastern Plantations. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Anglo-Eastern Plantations

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Anglo-Eastern Plantations. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
658.56660.05661.54
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
644.83646.32726.00
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Anglo-Eastern Plantations

For every potential investor in Anglo-Eastern, whether a beginner or expert, Anglo-Eastern Plantations' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Anglo-Eastern Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Anglo-Eastern. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Anglo-Eastern Plantations' price trends.

Anglo-Eastern Plantations Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Anglo-Eastern Plantations stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Anglo-Eastern Plantations could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Anglo-Eastern Plantations by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Anglo-Eastern Plantations Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Anglo-Eastern Plantations' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Anglo-Eastern Plantations' current price.

Anglo-Eastern Plantations Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Anglo-Eastern Plantations stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Anglo-Eastern Plantations shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Anglo-Eastern Plantations stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Anglo Eastern Plantations PLC entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Anglo-Eastern Plantations Risk Indicators

The analysis of Anglo-Eastern Plantations' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Anglo-Eastern Plantations' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting anglo-eastern stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Anglo-Eastern Stock

Anglo-Eastern Plantations financial ratios help investors to determine whether Anglo-Eastern Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Anglo-Eastern with respect to the benefits of owning Anglo-Eastern Plantations security.