AES Brasil Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| AESB3 Stock | BRL 8.11 0.11 1.34% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of AES Brasil Energia on the next trading day is expected to be 6.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.13. AES Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
AES |
AES Brasil Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of AES Brasil Energia on the next trading day is expected to be 6.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18, mean absolute percentage error of 0.10, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.13.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict AES Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that AES Brasil's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
AES Brasil Stock Forecast Pattern
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Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of AES Brasil stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent AES Brasil stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.8265 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1825 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0176 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 11.1305 |
Predictive Modules for AES Brasil
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AES Brasil Energia. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.AES Brasil Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with AES Brasil stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of AES Brasil could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing AES Brasil by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
AES Brasil Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how AES Brasil stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading AES Brasil shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying AES Brasil stock market strength indicators, traders can identify AES Brasil Energia entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
AES Brasil Risk Indicators
The analysis of AES Brasil's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in AES Brasil's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aes stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9593 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.02 | |||
| Variance | 9.12 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Tools for AES Stock Analysis
When running AES Brasil's price analysis, check to measure AES Brasil's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AES Brasil is operating at the current time. Most of AES Brasil's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AES Brasil's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AES Brasil's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AES Brasil to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.