Afcon Holdings Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| AFHL Stock | ILS 34,250 250.00 0.72% |
Afcon Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Afcon Holdings stock prices and determine the direction of Afcon Holdings's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Afcon Holdings' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time, the value of RSI of Afcon Holdings' share price is approaching 47. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Afcon Holdings, making its price go up or down. Momentum 47
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Afcon Holdings hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Afcon Holdings from the perspective of Afcon Holdings response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Afcon Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 34,250 with a mean absolute deviation of 570.67 and the sum of the absolute errors of 34,240. Afcon Holdings after-hype prediction price | ILA 34250.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Afcon |
Afcon Holdings Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Afcon price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Afcon using various technical indicators. When you analyze Afcon charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Afcon Holdings Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Afcon Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 34,250 with a mean absolute deviation of 570.67, mean absolute percentage error of 581,697, and the sum of the absolute errors of 34,240.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Afcon Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Afcon Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Afcon Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Afcon Holdings | Afcon Holdings Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Afcon Holdings Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Afcon Holdings' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Afcon Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 34,248 and 34,252, respectively. We have considered Afcon Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Afcon Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Afcon Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 129.5463 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -92.3333 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 570.6667 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0174 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 34240.0 |
Predictive Modules for Afcon Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Afcon Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Afcon Holdings After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Afcon Holdings at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Afcon Holdings or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Afcon Holdings, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Afcon Holdings Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Afcon Holdings' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Afcon Holdings' historical news coverage. Afcon Holdings' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 34,248 and 34,252, respectively. We have considered Afcon Holdings' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Afcon Holdings is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Afcon Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
Afcon Holdings Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Afcon Holdings is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Afcon Holdings backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Afcon Holdings, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.32 | 2.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
34,250 | 34,250 | 0.00 |
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Afcon Holdings Hype Timeline
Afcon Holdings is presently traded for 34,250on Tel Aviv Stock Exchange of Israel. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Afcon is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.32%. %. The volatility of related hype on Afcon Holdings is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 34,250. About 66.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.68. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Afcon Holdings last dividend was issued on the 15th of May 2022. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Afcon Holdings to cross-verify your projections.Afcon Holdings Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Afcon Holdings' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Afcon Holdings' future price movements. Getting to know how Afcon Holdings' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Afcon Holdings may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ARD | Arad | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 1.78 | (2.48) | 7.74 | |
| CMDR | Computer Direct | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 3.52 | (8.12) | 19.38 | |
| TDRN | Tadiran Hldg | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.58 | (0.01) | 8.02 | (4.85) | 16.97 | |
| PCBT | PCB Tec | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.36 | 0.08 | 4.70 | (4.13) | 19.68 | |
| TLSY | Telsys | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.75 | 0.02 | 2.91 | (2.89) | 10.77 | |
| ALLT | Allot Communications | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.17 | 0 | 6.95 | (5.11) | 18.06 | |
| RPAC | Rapac Communication Infrastructure | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.38 | 0.23 | 4.61 | (2.86) | 14.56 | |
| AUDC | AudioCodes | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 2.73 | (4.37) | 16.40 | |
| ININ | Inter Industries | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.08 | 0.08 | 4.26 | (3.46) | 16.77 | |
| SHVA | Automatic Bank Services | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.98 | 0.09 | 3.34 | (4.16) | 11.26 |
Other Forecasting Options for Afcon Holdings
For every potential investor in Afcon, whether a beginner or expert, Afcon Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Afcon Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Afcon. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Afcon Holdings' price trends.Afcon Holdings Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Afcon Holdings stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Afcon Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Afcon Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Afcon Holdings Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Afcon Holdings stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Afcon Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Afcon Holdings stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Afcon Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 212.75 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.19) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 34670.0 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 34530.0 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 0.24 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (545.00) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (250.00) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 47.19 |
Afcon Holdings Risk Indicators
The analysis of Afcon Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Afcon Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting afcon stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.78 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.77 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.34 | |||
| Variance | 5.48 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.89 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.14 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.09) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Afcon Holdings
The number of cover stories for Afcon Holdings depends on current market conditions and Afcon Holdings' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Afcon Holdings is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Afcon Holdings' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in Afcon Stock
Afcon Holdings financial ratios help investors to determine whether Afcon Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Afcon with respect to the benefits of owning Afcon Holdings security.