Air France Pink Sheet Forward View - Simple Regression
| AFLYY Stock | USD 1.29 0.04 3.20% |
Air Pink Sheet outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Air France's share price is at 50. This suggests that the pink sheet is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Air France, making its price go up or down. Momentum 50
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Air France hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Air France KLM from the perspective of Air France response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Air France KLM on the next trading day is expected to be 1.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.02. Air France after-hype prediction price | USD 1.29 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Air |
Air France Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Air price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Air using various technical indicators. When you analyze Air charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Air France Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 5th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Air France KLM on the next trading day is expected to be 1.32 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.02.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Air Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Air France's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Air France Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Air France | Air France Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Air France Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Air France's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Air France's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 4.67, respectively. We have considered Air France's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Air France pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Air France pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.8409 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0648 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0532 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 4.0153 |
Predictive Modules for Air France
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Air France KLM. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Air France's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Air France After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Air France at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Air France or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Air France, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Air France Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Air France's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Air France's historical news coverage. Air France's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.06 and 4.64, respectively. We have considered Air France's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Air France is dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Air France KLM is based on 3 months time horizon.
Air France Pink Sheet Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Air France is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Air France backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Air France, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.26 | 3.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
1.29 | 1.29 | 0.00 |
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Air France Hype Timeline
Air France KLM is presently traded for 1.29. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Air is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.26%. %. The volatility of related hype on Air France is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.29. The company recorded a loss per share of 4.28. Air France KLM last dividend was issued on the 29th of June 2022. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next anticipated press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Air France to cross-verify your projections.Air France Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Air France's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Air France's future price movements. Getting to know how Air France's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Air France may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ANNSF | Aena SME SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.39 | 0.06 | 3.00 | (1.77) | 6.60 | |
| RYAOF | Ryanair Holdings PLC | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 130.04 | |
| ICAGY | International Consolidated Airlines | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.42 | 0.05 | 3.36 | (2.82) | 13.57 | |
| SSUMF | Sumitomo | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.68 | 0.14 | 6.12 | (5.11) | 19.30 | |
| SSUMY | Sumitomo Corp ADR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.12 | 0.23 | 3.22 | (2.10) | 6.48 | |
| ASAZY | Assa Abloy AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.19 | 0.06 | 2.05 | (2.01) | 5.56 | |
| SHLRF | Schindler Holding AG | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.94 | 0.03 | 4.18 | (1.44) | 12.72 | |
| BABWF | International Consolidated Airlines | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.02 | 2.68 | 0.00 | 16.51 | |
| FINMF | Leonardo Spa | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.01 | 0.06 | 5.34 | (5.33) | 12.48 | |
| ASAZF | ASSA ABLOY AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.23 | 2.37 | 0.00 | 6.84 |
Other Forecasting Options for Air France
For every potential investor in Air, whether a beginner or expert, Air France's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Air Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Air. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Air France's price trends.Air France Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Air France pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Air France could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Air France by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Air France Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Air France pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Air France shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Air France pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Air France KLM entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Air France Risk Indicators
The analysis of Air France's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Air France's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting air pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.59 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.66 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.71 | |||
| Variance | 13.8 | |||
| Downside Variance | 20.77 | |||
| Semi Variance | 13.43 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.10) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Air France
The number of cover stories for Air France depends on current market conditions and Air France's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Air France is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Air France's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Air France Short Properties
Air France's future price predictability will typically decrease when Air France's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Air France KLM often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Air France's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Air France's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 578.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 6.8 B |
Additional Tools for Air Pink Sheet Analysis
When running Air France's price analysis, check to measure Air France's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Air France is operating at the current time. Most of Air France's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Air France's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Air France's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Air France to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.