American Balanced Mutual Fund Forward View - 20 Period Moving Average
| AFMBX Fund | USD 40.45 0.11 0.27% |
The 20 Period Moving Average output for American Balanced Fund is derived from daily price data across the evaluation window. The error pattern reveals whether the model tracked prices consistently or diverged during volatile sessions. Parameters are re-estimated as new trading sessions are recorded, keeping the forecast current. The 20 Period Moving Average model projects American Balanced at 39.50 for the next trading day, below the most recent closing price. American Balanced's 20 Period Moving Average forecast is intended for short-term analytical reference.
20 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 12th of May 2026
Over a 90-day horizon, the 20 Period Moving Average model forecasts American Balanced at 39.50 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 1.03 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.03 , and sum of absolute errors of 42.29 .This represents a tight forecast with good short-term tracking of American Balanced's price movement. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest American Balanced | American Balanced Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
American Balanced's next-session forecast estimates practical downside and upside boundaries based on the model's historical fit. Downside is estimated near 38.83 and upside near 40.17. The moderate spread reflects defined uncertainty around the forecast.
Model Predictive Factors
The table below summarizes the 20 Period Moving Average model's error metrics for American Balanced mutual fund. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 81.538 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.3508 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.0314 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0268 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 42.286 |
Other Forecasting Options for American Balanced
Relative Strength Index values for American measure the speed and magnitude of recent price changes. Recognizing these clusters in American Balanced's returns informs position size and stop-loss calibration. Candlestick pattern analysis of American Mutual Fund daily data reveals short-term reversal or continuation signals.American Balanced Comparable Funds
The instruments listed below are comparable funds for American Balanced and provide a practical reference set. Peer review is strongest when it focuses on NAV trend, discount or premium to NAV, yield, and fee burden.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
American Balanced Market Strength Events
Accumulation/Distribution and Balance of Power for American Balanced reveal whether buying or selling pressure dominates recent sessions. Balance of Power trending positive indicates that buyers are consistently closing American Balanced near session highs. These signals help explain whether price direction and session structure are moving together for American Balanced.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 40.45 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 40.45 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.055 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.11 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 66.99 |
American Balanced Risk Indicators
Risk indicator analysis for American Balanced quantifies how much price variability the mutual fund has exhibited over the measurement window. Downside variance exceeding total variance indicates that negative moves in American Balanced have been larger or more frequent than positive ones. Mean deviation provides a more intuitive measure of typical price fluctuation than variance because it stays in the same units as American Balanced's price.
| Mean Deviation | 0.5257 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.5232 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.6902 | |||
| Variance | 0.4764 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.4349 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.2737 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.61 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.