First Trust ETF Forward View - Simple Regression
| AFSM ETF | USD 37.70 0.37 0.99% |
Simple Regression is applied to First Trust Active's daily closing prices, and the resulting forecast is presented with accuracy metrics. Wide deviation between fitted and observed values suggests the model's assumptions may not match current market conditions. The Simple Regression model projects First Trust at 36.20 for the next trading day, below the most recent closing price. This Simple Regression output is provided as analytical reference and does not constitute a trading recommendation.
Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 9th of May
Over a 90-day horizon, the Simple Regression model forecasts First Trust at 36.20 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 1.17 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.03 , and sum of absolute errors of 71.49 .This represents a tight forecast with good short-term tracking of First Trust's price movement. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.
ETF Forecast Pattern
| Backtest First Trust | First Trust Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The projected range for First Trust reflects the model's ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios for the next trading day. The current forecast range spans downside near 34.87 and upside near 37.54. The moderate spread reflects defined uncertainty around the forecast.
Model Predictive Factors
The table below summarizes the Simple Regression model's error metrics for First Trust ETF. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.6576 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.1719 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0343 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 71.4874 |
Other Forecasting Options for First Trust
The distribution of First Trust's daily returns is typically non-normal, with fatter tails than a Gaussian model predicts. This reveals hidden support and resistance zones in First Trust's chart that simple price charts miss.First Trust Comparable Funds
Investors studying First Trust often review similar funds to compare yield, discount behavior, and risk. Funds are typically compared on holdings mix, category returns, risk measures, and implementation cost rather than on operating-company margins. Category-relative analysis helps separate fund-specific behavior from broader market moves affecting the whole group. This makes the peer set a useful category benchmark for First Trust.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
First Trust Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for First Trust ETF provide a framework for assessing security responsiveness. A rising Accumulation/Distribution line alongside rising price confirms institutional buying interest in First Trust.
First Trust Risk Indicators
Assessing First Trust's risk indicators is a structured way to evaluate the risk-return trade-off for first trust etf. The level of risk embedded in First Trust's feeds directly into exposure calibration.
| Mean Deviation | 1.08 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.21 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.37 | |||
| Variance | 1.87 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.03 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.48 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.08 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.