Aberdeen Global Fund Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| AGD Fund | USD 12.24 0.12 0.97% |
Aberdeen Fund outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Aberdeen Global stock prices and determine the direction of Aberdeen Global Dynamic's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Aberdeen Global's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength index (rsi) of Aberdeen Global's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the fund is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Aberdeen Global hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Aberdeen Global Dynamic from the perspective of Aberdeen Global response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Aberdeen Global Dynamic on the next trading day is expected to be 12.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.66. Aberdeen Global after-hype prediction price | USD 12.35 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Aberdeen |
Aberdeen Global Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Aberdeen price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Aberdeen using various technical indicators. When you analyze Aberdeen charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Aberdeen Global Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 6th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Aberdeen Global Dynamic on the next trading day is expected to be 12.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.66.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Aberdeen Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Aberdeen Global's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Aberdeen Global Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Aberdeen Global | Aberdeen Global Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Aberdeen Global Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Aberdeen Global's Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Aberdeen Global's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 11.00 and 13.48, respectively. We have considered Aberdeen Global's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aberdeen Global fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aberdeen Global fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.432 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.02 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.111 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0095 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 6.66 |
Predictive Modules for Aberdeen Global
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aberdeen Global Dynamic. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Aberdeen Global After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Aberdeen Global at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Aberdeen Global or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Fund prices, such as prices of Aberdeen Global, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Aberdeen Global Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Aberdeen Global's fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Aberdeen Global's historical news coverage. Aberdeen Global's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 11.11 and 13.59, respectively. We have considered Aberdeen Global's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Aberdeen Global is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Aberdeen Global Dynamic is based on 3 months time horizon.
Aberdeen Global Fund Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Fund such as Aberdeen Global is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Aberdeen Global backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Aberdeen Global, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.18 | 1.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
12.24 | 12.35 | 0.08 |
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Aberdeen Global Hype Timeline
On the 5th of February Aberdeen Global Dynamic is traded for 12.24. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Aberdeen is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 12.35. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is insignificant. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.08%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.18%. The volatility of related hype on Aberdeen Global is about 13950.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 12.24. About 42.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.76. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Aberdeen Global Dynamic last dividend was issued on the 21st of October 2022. The entity had a split on the 21st of January 2014. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aberdeen Global to cross-verify your projections.Aberdeen Global Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Aberdeen Global's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Aberdeen Global's future price movements. Getting to know how Aberdeen Global's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Aberdeen Global may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BGH | Barings Global Short | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.40 | (0.02) | 0.87 | (0.67) | 2.15 | |
| CAF | Morgan Stanley China | (0.17) | 4 per month | 0.90 | 0.06 | 2.28 | (1.77) | 6.75 | |
| AWP | Aberdeen Global Premier | (0.01) | 1 per month | 0.59 | 0.03 | 1.35 | (1.06) | 3.66 | |
| SAISX | Sa International Small | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.51 | 0.19 | 1.25 | (1.12) | 3.52 | |
| EOD | Wells Fargo Advantage | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.50 | 0.13 | 1.26 | (1.00) | 3.59 | |
| JCE | Nuveen Core Equity | 0.01 | 3 per month | 0.76 | (0.04) | 1.28 | (1.19) | 3.55 | |
| FSCCX | First American Investment | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.76 | 0.09 | 2.19 | (1.35) | 4.92 | |
| SPXX | Nuveen SP 500 | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.64 | (0.01) | 1.34 | (1.22) | 2.87 | |
| TDF | Templeton Dragon Closed | 0.09 | 8 per month | 0.81 | (0) | 1.54 | (1.40) | 5.71 |
Other Forecasting Options for Aberdeen Global
For every potential investor in Aberdeen, whether a beginner or expert, Aberdeen Global's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Aberdeen Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Aberdeen. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Aberdeen Global's price trends.Aberdeen Global Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Aberdeen Global fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Aberdeen Global could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Aberdeen Global by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Aberdeen Global Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Aberdeen Global fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Aberdeen Global shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Aberdeen Global fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Aberdeen Global Dynamic entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 1140.39 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.71) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 12.25 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 12.24 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.07) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.12) |
Aberdeen Global Risk Indicators
The analysis of Aberdeen Global's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Aberdeen Global's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aberdeen fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9499 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.9268 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.24 | |||
| Variance | 1.55 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.29 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.8589 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.17) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Aberdeen Global
The number of cover stories for Aberdeen Global depends on current market conditions and Aberdeen Global's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Aberdeen Global is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Aberdeen Global's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in Aberdeen Fund
Aberdeen Global financial ratios help investors to determine whether Aberdeen Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Aberdeen with respect to the benefits of owning Aberdeen Global security.
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