Federal Agricultural Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| AGM-A Stock | USD 161.79 3.75 2.27% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Federal Agricultural Mortgage on the next trading day is expected to be 167.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 16.23 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,006. Federal Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Federal Agricultural stock prices and determine the direction of Federal Agricultural Mortgage's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Federal Agricultural's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Federal |
Federal Agricultural Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Federal Agricultural's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 1992-12-31 | Previous Quarter 923 M | Current Value 842.1 M | Quarterly Volatility 370 M |
Federal Agricultural Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Federal Agricultural Mortgage on the next trading day is expected to be 167.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 16.23, mean absolute percentage error of 1,080, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,006.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Federal Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Federal Agricultural's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Federal Agricultural Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Federal Agricultural | Federal Agricultural Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Federal Agricultural stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Federal Agricultural stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 126.9328 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 16.2276 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 9.223372036854776E14 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1006.1094 |
Predictive Modules for Federal Agricultural
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Federal Agricultural. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Federal Agricultural Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Federal Agricultural stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Federal Agricultural could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Federal Agricultural by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Federal Agricultural Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Federal Agricultural stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Federal Agricultural shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Federal Agricultural stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Federal Agricultural Mortgage entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 13.57 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (1.00) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 163.67 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 163.04 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 0.0063 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (3.75) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (3.75) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 52.19 |
Federal Agricultural Risk Indicators
The analysis of Federal Agricultural's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Federal Agricultural's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting federal stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.15 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.05 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.01 | |||
| Variance | 4.03 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.33 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.11 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.06) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Federal Agricultural is a strong investment it is important to analyze Federal Agricultural's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Federal Agricultural's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Federal Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in board of governors. You can also try the Share Portfolio module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.