BrasilAgro Companhia Stock Forward View - Simple Regression

AGRO3 Stock  BRL 20.57  0.24  1.18%   
BrasilAgro Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the value of rsi of BrasilAgro Companhia's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of BrasilAgro Companhia's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of BrasilAgro Companhia and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from BrasilAgro Companhia's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with BrasilAgro Companhia, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using BrasilAgro Companhia hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of BrasilAgro Companhia from the perspective of BrasilAgro Companhia response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of BrasilAgro Companhia on the next trading day is expected to be 21.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43 and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.90.

BrasilAgro Companhia after-hype prediction price

    
  BRL 20.57  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of BrasilAgro Companhia to cross-verify your projections.

BrasilAgro Companhia Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine BrasilAgro price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for BrasilAgro using various technical indicators. When you analyze BrasilAgro charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through BrasilAgro Companhia price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

BrasilAgro Companhia Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 13th of February 2026

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of BrasilAgro Companhia on the next trading day is expected to be 21.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.43, mean absolute percentage error of 0.27, and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.90.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict BrasilAgro Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that BrasilAgro Companhia's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

BrasilAgro Companhia Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest BrasilAgro Companhia  BrasilAgro Companhia Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

BrasilAgro Companhia Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting BrasilAgro Companhia's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. BrasilAgro Companhia's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 19.68 and 22.48, respectively. We have considered BrasilAgro Companhia's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
20.57
21.08
Expected Value
22.48
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of BrasilAgro Companhia stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent BrasilAgro Companhia stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.6433
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.4339
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0213
SAESum of the absolute errors26.9043
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as BrasilAgro Companhia historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for BrasilAgro Companhia

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as BrasilAgro Companhia. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
19.1720.5721.97
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
15.5516.9522.63
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as BrasilAgro Companhia. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against BrasilAgro Companhia's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, BrasilAgro Companhia's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in BrasilAgro Companhia.

BrasilAgro Companhia After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of BrasilAgro Companhia at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in BrasilAgro Companhia or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of BrasilAgro Companhia, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

BrasilAgro Companhia Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting BrasilAgro Companhia's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on BrasilAgro Companhia's historical news coverage. BrasilAgro Companhia's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 19.17 and 21.97, respectively. We have considered BrasilAgro Companhia's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
20.57
20.57
After-hype Price
21.97
Upside
BrasilAgro Companhia is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of BrasilAgro Companhia is based on 3 months time horizon.

BrasilAgro Companhia Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as BrasilAgro Companhia is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading BrasilAgro Companhia backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with BrasilAgro Companhia, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.09 
1.40
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
In 5 to 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
20.57
20.57
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

BrasilAgro Companhia Hype Timeline

BrasilAgro Companhia is presently traded for 20.57on Sao Paulo Exchange of Brazil. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. BrasilAgro is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.09%. %. The volatility of related hype on BrasilAgro Companhia is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 20.57. About 45.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.17. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. BrasilAgro Companhia last dividend was issued on the 28th of October 2022. The entity had 100:1 split on the 1st of November 2007. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next projected press release will be in 5 to 10 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of BrasilAgro Companhia to cross-verify your projections.

BrasilAgro Companhia Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to BrasilAgro Companhia's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict BrasilAgro Companhia's future price movements. Getting to know how BrasilAgro Companhia's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how BrasilAgro Companhia may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for BrasilAgro Companhia

For every potential investor in BrasilAgro, whether a beginner or expert, BrasilAgro Companhia's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. BrasilAgro Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in BrasilAgro. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying BrasilAgro Companhia's price trends.

BrasilAgro Companhia Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with BrasilAgro Companhia stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of BrasilAgro Companhia could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing BrasilAgro Companhia by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

BrasilAgro Companhia Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how BrasilAgro Companhia stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading BrasilAgro Companhia shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying BrasilAgro Companhia stock market strength indicators, traders can identify BrasilAgro Companhia entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

BrasilAgro Companhia Risk Indicators

The analysis of BrasilAgro Companhia's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in BrasilAgro Companhia's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting brasilagro stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for BrasilAgro Companhia

The number of cover stories for BrasilAgro Companhia depends on current market conditions and BrasilAgro Companhia's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that BrasilAgro Companhia is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about BrasilAgro Companhia's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

BrasilAgro Companhia Short Properties

BrasilAgro Companhia's future price predictability will typically decrease when BrasilAgro Companhia's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of BrasilAgro Companhia often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential BrasilAgro Companhia's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. BrasilAgro Companhia's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding71.4 M
Cash And Short Term Investments530.4 M

Additional Tools for BrasilAgro Stock Analysis

When running BrasilAgro Companhia's price analysis, check to measure BrasilAgro Companhia's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy BrasilAgro Companhia is operating at the current time. Most of BrasilAgro Companhia's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of BrasilAgro Companhia's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move BrasilAgro Companhia's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of BrasilAgro Companhia to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.