Anhui Conch Pink Sheet Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| AHCHY Stock | USD 16.12 0.18 1.13% |
Anhui Pink Sheet outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Anhui Conch's pink sheet price is slightly above 60. This suggests that the pink sheet is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Anhui, making its price go up or down. Momentum 60
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Oversold | Overbought |
Using Anhui Conch hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Anhui Conch Cement from the perspective of Anhui Conch response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Anhui Conch Cement on the next trading day is expected to be 16.11 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.81. Anhui Conch after-hype prediction price | USD 16.12 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Anhui |
Anhui Conch Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Anhui price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Anhui using various technical indicators. When you analyze Anhui charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Anhui Conch Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 31st of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Anhui Conch Cement on the next trading day is expected to be 16.11 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.81.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Anhui Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Anhui Conch's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Anhui Conch Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
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Anhui Conch Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Anhui Conch's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Anhui Conch's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 14.24 and 17.99, respectively. We have considered Anhui Conch's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Anhui Conch pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Anhui Conch pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.4856 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0245 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2101 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0141 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 12.8143 |
Predictive Modules for Anhui Conch
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Anhui Conch Cement. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Anhui Conch After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Anhui Conch at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Anhui Conch or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Anhui Conch, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Anhui Conch Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Anhui Conch's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Anhui Conch's historical news coverage. Anhui Conch's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 14.24 and 18.00, respectively. We have considered Anhui Conch's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Anhui Conch is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Anhui Conch Cement is based on 3 months time horizon.
Anhui Conch Pink Sheet Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Anhui Conch is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Anhui Conch backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Anhui Conch, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.15 | 1.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
16.12 | 16.12 | 0.00 |
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Anhui Conch Hype Timeline
Anhui Conch Cement is presently traded for 16.12. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Anhui is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.15%. %. The volatility of related hype on Anhui Conch is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 16.12. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.76. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Anhui Conch Cement last dividend was issued on the 2nd of June 2022. The entity had 3:2 split on the 27th of June 2011. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Anhui Conch to cross-verify your projections.Anhui Conch Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Anhui Conch's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Anhui Conch's future price movements. Getting to know how Anhui Conch's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Anhui Conch may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CXMSF | CEMEX SAB de | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.66 | 0.12 | 6.40 | (4.21) | 27.47 | |
| JHIUF | James Hardie Industries | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.02 | 3.58 | 0.00 | 24.61 | |
| IPOAF | Industrias Penoles Sab | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.81 | 0.23 | 8.47 | (4.34) | 15.54 | |
| NPCPF | Nippon Paint Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| JIAXF | Jiangxi Copper | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 34.79 | |
| BZZUY | Buzzi Unicem SpA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.40 | (0.02) | 3.88 | (4.59) | 14.22 | |
| NDEKF | Nitto Denko | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 0.00 | (1.97) | 6.68 | |
| BZZUF | Buzzi Unicem SpA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.01) | 2.68 | (1.43) | 10.73 | |
| TYNPF | Nippon Sanso Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 5.24 | (6.82) | 19.68 | |
| BDNNY | Boliden AB ADR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.15 | 0.39 | 3.94 | (2.44) | 8.70 |
Other Forecasting Options for Anhui Conch
For every potential investor in Anhui, whether a beginner or expert, Anhui Conch's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Anhui Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Anhui. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Anhui Conch's price trends.Anhui Conch Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Anhui Conch pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Anhui Conch could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Anhui Conch by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Anhui Conch Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Anhui Conch pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Anhui Conch shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Anhui Conch pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Anhui Conch Cement entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Anhui Conch Risk Indicators
The analysis of Anhui Conch's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Anhui Conch's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting anhui pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.58 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.9 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.05 | |||
| Variance | 4.22 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.09 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.62 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.79) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Anhui Conch
The number of cover stories for Anhui Conch depends on current market conditions and Anhui Conch's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Anhui Conch is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Anhui Conch's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Anhui Conch Short Properties
Anhui Conch's future price predictability will typically decrease when Anhui Conch's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Anhui Conch Cement often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Anhui Conch's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Anhui Conch's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.1 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 93.8 B |
Additional Tools for Anhui Pink Sheet Analysis
When running Anhui Conch's price analysis, check to measure Anhui Conch's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Anhui Conch is operating at the current time. Most of Anhui Conch's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Anhui Conch's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Anhui Conch's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Anhui Conch to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.