California Municipal Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| AICAXDelisted Fund | USD 13.79 0.00 0.00% |
California Mutual Fund outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of California Municipal's mutual fund price is slightly above 63. This suggests that the mutual fund is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling California, making its price go up or down. Momentum 63
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using California Municipal hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of California Municipal Portfolio from the perspective of California Municipal response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of California Municipal Portfolio on the next trading day is expected to be 13.79 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.37. California Municipal after-hype prediction price | USD 13.79 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
California |
California Municipal Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine California price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for California using various technical indicators. When you analyze California charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
California Municipal Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 21st of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of California Municipal Portfolio on the next trading day is expected to be 13.79 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0001, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.37.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict California Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that California Municipal's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
California Municipal Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest California Municipal | California Municipal Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of California Municipal mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent California Municipal mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 107.202 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0025 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0062 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 4.0E-4 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.37 |
Predictive Modules for California Municipal
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as California Municipal. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.California Municipal After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of California Municipal at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in California Municipal or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of California Municipal, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
California Municipal Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting California Municipal's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on California Municipal's historical news coverage. California Municipal's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 13.79 and 13.79, respectively. We have considered California Municipal's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
California Municipal is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of California Municipal is based on 3 months time horizon.
California Municipal Mutual Fund Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as California Municipal is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading California Municipal backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with California Municipal, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
13.79 | 13.79 | 0.00 |
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California Municipal Hype Timeline
California Municipal is presently traded for 13.79. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. California is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.0%. %. The volatility of related hype on California Municipal is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 13.79. The company last dividend was issued on the 20th of March 1970. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any mutual fund could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in nation.California Municipal Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to California Municipal's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict California Municipal's future price movements. Getting to know how California Municipal's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how California Municipal may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GSXPX | Goldman Sachs Small | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.61 | 0.16 | 2.26 | (1.53) | 4.97 | |
| LVAQX | Lsv Small Cap | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.38 | 0.16 | 2.49 | (1.31) | 7.90 | |
| RSPMX | Victory Rs Partners | 0.05 | 2 per month | 0.16 | 0.23 | 2.17 | (1.20) | 5.84 | |
| MXLSX | Great West Loomis Sayles | 0.13 | 1 per month | 0.68 | 0.13 | 2.35 | (1.55) | 4.52 | |
| AVCNX | American Century Etf | (1.52) | 4 per month | 0.49 | 0.22 | 2.91 | (1.49) | 7.46 |
California Municipal Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with California Municipal mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of California Municipal could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing California Municipal by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
California Municipal Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how California Municipal mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading California Municipal shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying California Municipal mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify California Municipal Portfolio entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
California Municipal Risk Indicators
The analysis of California Municipal's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in California Municipal's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting california mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.0589 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.0853 | |||
| Variance | 0.0073 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.0077 | |||
| Semi Variance | (0.02) | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.14) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for California Municipal
The number of cover stories for California Municipal depends on current market conditions and California Municipal's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that California Municipal is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about California Municipal's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any mutual fund could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in nation. You can also try the Equity Analysis module to research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities.
Other Consideration for investing in California Mutual Fund
If you are still planning to invest in California Municipal check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the California Municipal's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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