AIM ImmunoTech Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| AIM Stock | USD 1.21 0.01 0.83% |
AIM Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although AIM ImmunoTech's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of AIM ImmunoTech's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of AIM ImmunoTech fundamentals over time.
As of now, the RSI of AIM ImmunoTech's share price is approaching 38. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling AIM ImmunoTech, making its price go up or down. Momentum 38
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.98) | EPS Estimate Current Year (7.74) | EPS Estimate Next Year (4.33) | Wall Street Target Price 13.986 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.26) |
Using AIM ImmunoTech hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of AIM ImmunoTech from the perspective of AIM ImmunoTech response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
AIM Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of AIM ImmunoTech on the next trading day is expected to be 1.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.30.AIM ImmunoTech Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to AIM ImmunoTech's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in AIM. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding AIM can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around AIM ImmunoTech. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of AIM ImmunoTech's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about AIM ImmunoTech.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of AIM ImmunoTech on the next trading day is expected to be 1.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.30. AIM ImmunoTech after-hype prediction price | USD 1.22 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AIM ImmunoTech to cross-verify your projections. AIM ImmunoTech Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine AIM price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for AIM using various technical indicators. When you analyze AIM charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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AIM ImmunoTech Cash Forecast
Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the AIM ImmunoTech's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
Cash | First Reported 1995-10-31 | Previous Quarter 476 K | Current Value 2.3 M | Quarterly Volatility 13.1 M |
AIM ImmunoTech Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of AIM ImmunoTech on the next trading day is expected to be 1.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.30.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict AIM Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that AIM ImmunoTech's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
AIM ImmunoTech Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest AIM ImmunoTech | AIM ImmunoTech Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
AIM ImmunoTech Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting AIM ImmunoTech's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. AIM ImmunoTech's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 7.14, respectively. We have considered AIM ImmunoTech's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of AIM ImmunoTech stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent AIM ImmunoTech stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.7527 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0542 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0385 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3.3048 |
Predictive Modules for AIM ImmunoTech
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AIM ImmunoTech. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.AIM ImmunoTech After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of AIM ImmunoTech at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in AIM ImmunoTech or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of AIM ImmunoTech, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
AIM ImmunoTech Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting AIM ImmunoTech's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on AIM ImmunoTech's historical news coverage. AIM ImmunoTech's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.06 and 7.27, respectively. We have considered AIM ImmunoTech's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
AIM ImmunoTech is risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of AIM ImmunoTech is based on 3 months time horizon.
AIM ImmunoTech Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as AIM ImmunoTech is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading AIM ImmunoTech backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with AIM ImmunoTech, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.92 | 6.00 | 0.01 | 0.09 | 9 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
1.21 | 1.22 | 0.83 |
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AIM ImmunoTech Hype Timeline
On the 27th of January AIM ImmunoTech is traded for 1.21. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.09. AIM is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 1.22 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is forecasted to be 0.83%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.92%. The volatility of related hype on AIM ImmunoTech is about 5940.59%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.12. The company reported the last year's revenue of 170 K. Reported Net Loss for the year was (17.32 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 17 K. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AIM ImmunoTech to cross-verify your projections.AIM ImmunoTech Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to AIM ImmunoTech's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict AIM ImmunoTech's future price movements. Getting to know how AIM ImmunoTech's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how AIM ImmunoTech may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| KALA | Kala Pharmaceuticals | (0.36) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 12.28 | (11.76) | 59.48 | |
| OGEN | Oragenics | (0.02) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 4.55 | (7.53) | 19.90 | |
| KTTA | Pasithea Therapeutics Corp | 0.01 | 11 per month | 7.74 | 0.07 | 16.67 | (12.50) | 137.41 | |
| VYNE | Vyne Therapeutics | 0.00 | 8 per month | 2.43 | 0.12 | 5.71 | (5.26) | 55.08 | |
| QNRX | Quoin Pharmaceuticals Ltd | (0.40) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 18.69 | (11.19) | 77.47 | |
| ENSC | Ensysce Biosciences | (0.08) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.31) | 5.94 | (10.78) | 23.86 | |
| XTLB | XTL Biopharmaceuticals Ltd | (0.01) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 7.79 | (9.46) | 69.50 | |
| TCRT | Alaunos Therapeutics | (0.08) | 7 per month | 5.67 | 0.03 | 9.61 | (10.55) | 24.31 | |
| CANF | Can Fite Biopharma | (0.05) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 10.40 | (8.59) | 38.42 | |
| SNGX | Soligenix | (0.02) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 7.03 | (6.25) | 30.10 |
Other Forecasting Options for AIM ImmunoTech
For every potential investor in AIM, whether a beginner or expert, AIM ImmunoTech's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. AIM Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in AIM. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying AIM ImmunoTech's price trends.AIM ImmunoTech Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with AIM ImmunoTech stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of AIM ImmunoTech could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing AIM ImmunoTech by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
AIM ImmunoTech Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how AIM ImmunoTech stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading AIM ImmunoTech shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying AIM ImmunoTech stock market strength indicators, traders can identify AIM ImmunoTech entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
AIM ImmunoTech Risk Indicators
The analysis of AIM ImmunoTech's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in AIM ImmunoTech's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aim stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.39 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.94 | |||
| Variance | 35.28 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for AIM ImmunoTech
The number of cover stories for AIM ImmunoTech depends on current market conditions and AIM ImmunoTech's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that AIM ImmunoTech is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about AIM ImmunoTech's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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AIM ImmunoTech Short Properties
AIM ImmunoTech's future price predictability will typically decrease when AIM ImmunoTech's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of AIM ImmunoTech often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential AIM ImmunoTech's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AIM ImmunoTech's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 560.2 K | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AIM ImmunoTech to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in AIM Stock, please use our How to Invest in AIM ImmunoTech guide.You can also try the Balance Of Power module to check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of AIM ImmunoTech. If investors know AIM will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about AIM ImmunoTech listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (18.16) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.26) | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
The market value of AIM ImmunoTech is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of AIM that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of AIM ImmunoTech's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is AIM ImmunoTech's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because AIM ImmunoTech's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect AIM ImmunoTech's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between AIM ImmunoTech's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if AIM ImmunoTech is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, AIM ImmunoTech's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.