AIRTEL AFRICA Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

AIRTELAFRI   2,157  0.00  0.00%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of AIRTEL AFRICA PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 2,155 with a mean absolute deviation of 9.82 and the sum of the absolute errors of 599.21. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast AIRTEL AFRICA's stock prices and determine the direction of AIRTEL AFRICA PLC's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of AIRTEL AFRICA's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in income.
  
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through AIRTEL AFRICA price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

AIRTEL AFRICA Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 5th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of AIRTEL AFRICA PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 2,155 with a mean absolute deviation of 9.82, mean absolute percentage error of 135.27, and the sum of the absolute errors of 599.21.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict AIRTEL Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that AIRTEL AFRICA's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

AIRTEL AFRICA Stock Forecast Pattern

AIRTEL AFRICA Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting AIRTEL AFRICA's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. AIRTEL AFRICA's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2,155 and 2,156, respectively. We have considered AIRTEL AFRICA's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
2,157
2,155
Expected Value
2,156
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of AIRTEL AFRICA stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent AIRTEL AFRICA stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria123.0178
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation9.8231
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0045
SAESum of the absolute errors599.2062
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as AIRTEL AFRICA PLC historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for AIRTEL AFRICA

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AIRTEL AFRICA PLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of AIRTEL AFRICA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.

Other Forecasting Options for AIRTEL AFRICA

For every potential investor in AIRTEL, whether a beginner or expert, AIRTEL AFRICA's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. AIRTEL Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in AIRTEL. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying AIRTEL AFRICA's price trends.

AIRTEL AFRICA Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with AIRTEL AFRICA stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of AIRTEL AFRICA could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing AIRTEL AFRICA by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

AIRTEL AFRICA PLC Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of AIRTEL AFRICA's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of AIRTEL AFRICA's current price.

AIRTEL AFRICA Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how AIRTEL AFRICA stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading AIRTEL AFRICA shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying AIRTEL AFRICA stock market strength indicators, traders can identify AIRTEL AFRICA PLC entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

AIRTEL AFRICA Risk Indicators

The analysis of AIRTEL AFRICA's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in AIRTEL AFRICA's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting airtel stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.