Apartment Investment Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

AIV Stock  USD 5.89  0.02  0.34%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Apartment Investment and on the next trading day is expected to be 5.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.00. Apartment Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Apartment Investment's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Apartment Investment's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Apartment Investment and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Apartment Investment's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Apartment Investment and, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Apartment Investment's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.63)
EPS Estimate Next Year
(0.45)
Wall Street Target Price
6.7
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
(0.12)
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.01)
Using Apartment Investment hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Apartment Investment and from the perspective of Apartment Investment response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Apartment Investment using Apartment Investment's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Apartment using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Apartment Investment's stock price.

Apartment Investment Implied Volatility

    
  1.1  
Apartment Investment's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Apartment Investment and stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Apartment Investment's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Apartment Investment stock will not fluctuate a lot when Apartment Investment's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Apartment Investment and on the next trading day is expected to be 5.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.00.

Apartment Investment after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 5.89  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Apartment Investment to cross-verify your projections.

Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Apartment Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Apartment Investment's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Apartment Investment's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Apartment Investment stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Apartment Investment's open interest, investors have to compare it to Apartment Investment's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Apartment Investment is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Apartment. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.

Apartment Investment Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Apartment price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Apartment using various technical indicators. When you analyze Apartment charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Apartment Investment's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
 
Cash  
First Reported
1996-06-30
Previous Quarter
41.4 M
Current Value
404.4 M
Quarterly Volatility
94.6 M
 
Dot-com Bubble
 
Housing Crash
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
A naive forecasting model for Apartment Investment is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Apartment Investment and value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Apartment Investment Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Apartment Investment and on the next trading day is expected to be 5.69 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.00.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Apartment Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Apartment Investment's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Apartment Investment Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Apartment InvestmentApartment Investment Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Apartment Investment Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Apartment Investment's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Apartment Investment's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 4.36 and 7.02, respectively. We have considered Apartment Investment's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
5.89
5.69
Expected Value
7.02
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Apartment Investment stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Apartment Investment stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.2635
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0806
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0142
SAESum of the absolute errors4.9951
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Apartment Investment and. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Apartment Investment. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Apartment Investment

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Apartment Investment and. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
4.565.897.22
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
4.435.767.09
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
6.106.707.44
Details

Apartment Investment After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Apartment Investment at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Apartment Investment or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Apartment Investment, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Apartment Investment Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Apartment Investment's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Apartment Investment's historical news coverage. Apartment Investment's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 4.56 and 7.22, respectively. We have considered Apartment Investment's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
5.89
5.89
After-hype Price
7.22
Upside
Apartment Investment is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Apartment Investment and is based on 3 months time horizon.

Apartment Investment Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Apartment Investment is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Apartment Investment backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Apartment Investment, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.05 
1.33
 0.00  
 0.00  
13 Events / Month
6 Events / Month
In about 13 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
5.89
5.89
0.00 
1,900  
Notes

Apartment Investment Hype Timeline

On the 24th of January Apartment Investment and is traded for 5.89. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Apartment is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.05%. %. The volatility of related hype on Apartment Investment is about 3861.29%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 5.89. About 89.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.9. Apartment Investment and last dividend was issued on the 16th of October 2025. The entity had 9295:1000 split on the 15th of December 2020. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 13 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Apartment Investment to cross-verify your projections.

Apartment Investment Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Apartment Investment's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Apartment Investment's future price movements. Getting to know how Apartment Investment's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Apartment Investment may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
NXRTNexpoint Residential Trust 0.07 5 per month 1.61 (0.02) 2.80 (2.90) 8.15 
RWTRedwood Trust(0.06)11 per month 1.45  0.02  3.26 (2.72) 8.72 
MITTAG Mortgage Investment 0.07 10 per month 0.87  0.18  2.80 (1.66) 10.23 
BRSPBrightspire Capital(0.06)17 per month 0.67  0.13  2.26 (1.54) 4.36 
BFSSaul Centers(0.28)9 per month 1.08  0.02  1.71 (1.72) 4.95 
LANDGladstone Land(0.05)1 per month 1.17  0.04  2.26 (1.75) 8.20 
CTOCTO Realty Growth 0.43 10 per month 0.78  0.15  1.74 (1.57) 4.98 
AHHArmada Hflr Pr 0.17 9 per month 1.58 (0) 3.16 (2.97) 7.04 
TRTXTPG RE Finance 0.02 8 per month 0.97  0.05  2.00 (1.65) 6.00 

Other Forecasting Options for Apartment Investment

For every potential investor in Apartment, whether a beginner or expert, Apartment Investment's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Apartment Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Apartment. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Apartment Investment's price trends.

Apartment Investment Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Apartment Investment stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Apartment Investment could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Apartment Investment by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Apartment Investment Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Apartment Investment stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Apartment Investment shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Apartment Investment stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Apartment Investment and entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Apartment Investment Risk Indicators

The analysis of Apartment Investment's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Apartment Investment's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting apartment stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Apartment Investment

The number of cover stories for Apartment Investment depends on current market conditions and Apartment Investment's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Apartment Investment is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Apartment Investment's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Apartment Investment Short Properties

Apartment Investment's future price predictability will typically decrease when Apartment Investment's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Apartment Investment and often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Apartment Investment's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Apartment Investment's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding138.5 M
Cash And Short Term Investments141.1 M

Additional Tools for Apartment Stock Analysis

When running Apartment Investment's price analysis, check to measure Apartment Investment's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Apartment Investment is operating at the current time. Most of Apartment Investment's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Apartment Investment's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Apartment Investment's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Apartment Investment to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.