Akre Focus Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

Akre Focus Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Akre price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Akre using various technical indicators. When you analyze Akre charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur. A naive forecasting model for Akre Focus is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Akre Focus Fund value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Akre Focus Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Akre Focus Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 61.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.46, mean absolute percentage error of 0.36, and the sum of the absolute errors of 27.82.

Akre Focus Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Akre Focus Price Prediction

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Akre Focus Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Akre Focus mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Akre Focus mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Akre Focus Fund. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Akre Focus. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Akre Focus

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Akre Focus Fund. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 60.94 61.86 62.78 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 60.62 61.54 68.76 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 61.42 64.69 67.96 Details

Akre Focus After-Hype Price Density Analysis

Akre Focus Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

Akre Focus Mutual Fund Price Outlook Analysis

Notes

Akre Focus Hype Timeline

Akre Focus Fund is presently traded for 62.51. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.65, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.18. Akre is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 61.86. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 7.04%. The price reduction on the next news is expected to be -1.04%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.05%. The volatility of related hype on Akre Focus is about 25.16%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 62.33. The company last dividend was issued on the 13th of December 1970. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Akre Focus to cross-verify your projections.

Akre Focus Related Hype Analysis

Other Forecasting Options for Akre Focus

For every potential investor in Akre, whether a beginner or expert, Akre Focus' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Akre Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Akre. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Akre Focus' price trends.

Akre Focus Related Equities

Risk & Return

Correlation

Akre Focus Market Strength Events

Akre Focus Risk Indicators

Story Coverage note for Akre Focus

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Other Information on Investing in Akre Mutual Fund