Akari Therapeutics Stock Forward View - Simple Regression

AKTX Stock  USD 0.24  0.01  4.35%   
Akari Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Akari Therapeutics' share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Akari Therapeutics' future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Akari Therapeutics PLC, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Akari Therapeutics' stock price prediction:
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
(0.11)
EPS Estimate Current Year
(0.45)
EPS Estimate Next Year
(0.40)
Wall Street Target Price
4.5333
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
(0.12)
Using Akari Therapeutics hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Akari Therapeutics PLC from the perspective of Akari Therapeutics response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.

Akari Relative Strength Index

The Simple Regression forecasted value of Akari Therapeutics PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 0.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.53.

Akari Therapeutics PLC Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Akari Therapeutics' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Akari. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Akari can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Akari Therapeutics PLC. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Akari Therapeutics' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Akari Therapeutics.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Akari Therapeutics PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 0.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.53.

Akari Therapeutics after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 0.21  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Akari Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections.

Akari Therapeutics Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Akari price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Akari using various technical indicators. When you analyze Akari charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Akari Therapeutics price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Akari Therapeutics Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 8th of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Akari Therapeutics PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 0.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.53.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Akari Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Akari Therapeutics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Akari Therapeutics Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Akari Therapeutics  Akari Therapeutics Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Akari Therapeutics Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Akari Therapeutics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Akari Therapeutics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0 and 7.55, respectively. We have considered Akari Therapeutics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
0.24
0.18
Expected Value
7.55
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Akari Therapeutics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Akari Therapeutics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.0404
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0408
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.129
SAESum of the absolute errors2.5271
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Akari Therapeutics PLC historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Akari Therapeutics

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Akari Therapeutics PLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Akari Therapeutics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.010.217.59
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.071.318.69
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
4.134.535.03
Details

Akari Therapeutics After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Akari Therapeutics at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Akari Therapeutics or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Akari Therapeutics, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Akari Therapeutics Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Akari Therapeutics' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Akari Therapeutics' historical news coverage. Akari Therapeutics' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.01 and 7.59, respectively. We have considered Akari Therapeutics' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
0.24
0.21
After-hype Price
7.59
Upside
Akari Therapeutics is extremely dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Akari Therapeutics PLC is based on 3 months time horizon.

Akari Therapeutics Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Akari Therapeutics is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Akari Therapeutics backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Akari Therapeutics, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  1.25 
7.38
  0.03 
  0.12 
10 Events / Month
4 Events / Month
In about 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
0.24
0.21
12.50 
36,900  
Notes

Akari Therapeutics Hype Timeline

Akari Therapeutics PLC is presently traded for 0.24. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.12. Akari is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 0.21. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -12.5%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -1.25%. The volatility of related hype on Akari Therapeutics is about 7531.38%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.36. About 31.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.36. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Akari Therapeutics PLC had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 1:20 split on the 17th of August 2023. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 10 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Akari Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections.

Akari Therapeutics Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Akari Therapeutics' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Akari Therapeutics' future price movements. Getting to know how Akari Therapeutics' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Akari Therapeutics may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
PPBTPurple Biotech(0.03)5 per month 0.00 (0.15) 6.56 (6.33) 19.65 
SYRSSyros Pharmaceuticals 0.00 0 per month 29.96  0.24  300.00 (75.00) 375.00 
CDTConduit Pharmaceuticals 0.18 6 per month 0.00 (0.19) 12.43 (13.57) 40.12 
XAGELongevity Health Holdings 0.02 7 per month 0.00 (0.08) 18.60 (18.75) 46.80 
REVBRevelation Biosciences 0.19 9 per month 0.00 (0.26) 6.84 (10.16) 35.57 
DRMADermata Therapeutics(0.15)8 per month 0.00 (0.06) 16.18 (16.23) 61.86 
MSPRMSP Recovery 0.07 9 per month 0.00 (0.07) 45.45 (23.08) 139.00 
PBMPsyence Biomedical Ltd 0.70 8 per month 0.00 (0.25) 9.41 (18.68) 96.64 
VINCVincerx Pharma Common 0.00 1 per month 13.09  0.04  10.00 (3.77) 127.90 
VRPXVirpax Pharmaceuticals 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.13  0.00  0.00  1,989 

Other Forecasting Options for Akari Therapeutics

For every potential investor in Akari, whether a beginner or expert, Akari Therapeutics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Akari Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Akari. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Akari Therapeutics' price trends.

Akari Therapeutics Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Akari Therapeutics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Akari Therapeutics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Akari Therapeutics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Akari Therapeutics Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Akari Therapeutics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Akari Therapeutics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Akari Therapeutics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Akari Therapeutics PLC entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Akari Therapeutics Risk Indicators

The analysis of Akari Therapeutics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Akari Therapeutics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting akari stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Akari Therapeutics

The number of cover stories for Akari Therapeutics depends on current market conditions and Akari Therapeutics' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Akari Therapeutics is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Akari Therapeutics' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Akari Therapeutics Short Properties

Akari Therapeutics' future price predictability will typically decrease when Akari Therapeutics' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Akari Therapeutics PLC often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Akari Therapeutics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Akari Therapeutics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding11.9 K
Cash And Short Term Investments2.6 M

Additional Tools for Akari Stock Analysis

When running Akari Therapeutics' price analysis, check to measure Akari Therapeutics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Akari Therapeutics is operating at the current time. Most of Akari Therapeutics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Akari Therapeutics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Akari Therapeutics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Akari Therapeutics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.