Cibox Interctive Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| ALCBX Stock | 0.01 0.0002 1.59% |
Cibox Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Cibox Interctive's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we suggest always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Cibox Interctive's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Cibox Interctive fundamentals over time.
At this time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Cibox Interctive's share price is approaching 49. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Cibox Interctive, making its price go up or down. Momentum 49
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.012 |
Using Cibox Interctive hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Cibox Interctive SA from the perspective of Cibox Interctive response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Cibox Interctive SA on the next trading day is expected to be 0.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.0002 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.02. Cibox Interctive after-hype prediction price | EUR 0.01 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Cibox |
Cibox Interctive Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Cibox price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Cibox using various technical indicators. When you analyze Cibox charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Cibox Interctive Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 21st of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Cibox Interctive SA on the next trading day is expected to be 0.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.0002, mean absolute percentage error of 0.00000018, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.02.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Cibox Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Cibox Interctive's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Cibox Interctive Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Cibox Interctive | Cibox Interctive Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Cibox Interctive Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Cibox Interctive's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Cibox Interctive's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.0001 and 2.96, respectively. We have considered Cibox Interctive's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Cibox Interctive stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Cibox Interctive stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 102.5609 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.0E-4 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0176 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.0151 |
Predictive Modules for Cibox Interctive
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Cibox Interctive. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Cibox Interctive's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Cibox Interctive After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Cibox Interctive at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Cibox Interctive or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Cibox Interctive, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Cibox Interctive Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Cibox Interctive's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Cibox Interctive's historical news coverage. Cibox Interctive's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.00 and 2.96, respectively. We have considered Cibox Interctive's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Cibox Interctive is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Cibox Interctive is based on 3 months time horizon.
Cibox Interctive Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Cibox Interctive is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Cibox Interctive backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Cibox Interctive, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.06 | 2.95 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
0.01 | 0.01 | 19.35 |
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Cibox Interctive Hype Timeline
Cibox Interctive is presently traded for 0.01on Euronext Paris of France. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.03. Cibox is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 0.01. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is insignificant. The price decline on the next news is expected to be -19.35%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.06%. The volatility of related hype on Cibox Interctive is about 612.76%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of -0.02. The book value of the company was presently reported as 0.01. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.01. Cibox Interctive last dividend was issued on the 10th of August 1998. The entity had 807:788 split on the 13th of July 2023. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next projected press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Cibox Interctive to cross-verify your projections.Cibox Interctive Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Cibox Interctive's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Cibox Interctive's future price movements. Getting to know how Cibox Interctive's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Cibox Interctive may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| COVH | Covivio Hotels | (0.1) | 2 per month | 1.05 | (0.04) | 2.17 | (1.69) | 9.00 | |
| MLBBO | BEBO Health SA | 0.00 | 1 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| ACA | Credit Agricole SA | (0.32) | 4 per month | 0.87 | 0.12 | 1.55 | (1.42) | 5.69 | |
| ALBFR | Sidetrade | (3.00) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.37) | 2.98 | (7.18) | 17.04 | |
| SACI | Fiducial Office Solutions | 0.00 | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.25) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.50 | |
| MLHOT | Hotelim Socit Anonyme | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.79 | 0.04 | 9.80 | (5.42) | 30.71 | |
| ETL | Eutelsat Communications SA | 0.05 | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 6.52 | (6.27) | 20.86 |
Other Forecasting Options for Cibox Interctive
For every potential investor in Cibox, whether a beginner or expert, Cibox Interctive's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Cibox Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Cibox. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Cibox Interctive's price trends.Cibox Interctive Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Cibox Interctive stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Cibox Interctive could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Cibox Interctive by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Cibox Interctive Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Cibox Interctive stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Cibox Interctive shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Cibox Interctive stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Cibox Interctive SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 3911.08 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (1.00) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 0.0125 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 0.0125 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.0002) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.0002) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 49.64 |
Cibox Interctive Risk Indicators
The analysis of Cibox Interctive's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Cibox Interctive's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting cibox stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.73 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.57 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.87 | |||
| Variance | 8.23 | |||
| Downside Variance | 8.15 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.6 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.04) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Cibox Interctive
The number of cover stories for Cibox Interctive depends on current market conditions and Cibox Interctive's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Cibox Interctive is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Cibox Interctive's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Cibox Interctive Short Properties
Cibox Interctive's future price predictability will typically decrease when Cibox Interctive's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Cibox Interctive SA often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Cibox Interctive's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Cibox Interctive's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 269.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.7 M |
Additional Tools for Cibox Stock Analysis
When running Cibox Interctive's price analysis, check to measure Cibox Interctive's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Cibox Interctive is operating at the current time. Most of Cibox Interctive's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Cibox Interctive's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Cibox Interctive's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Cibox Interctive to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.