Alleima AB Stock Forward View - Polynomial Regression
| ALLEI Stock | 80.80 0.50 0.62% |
Alleima Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the value of RSI of Alleima AB's share price is approaching 37. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Alleima AB, making its price go up or down. Momentum 37
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Alleima AB hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Alleima AB from the perspective of Alleima AB response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Alleima AB on the next trading day is expected to be 79.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.54 and the sum of the absolute errors of 93.67. Alleima AB after-hype prediction price | SEK 80.3 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Alleima |
Alleima AB Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Alleima price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Alleima using various technical indicators. When you analyze Alleima charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Alleima AB Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 20th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Alleima AB on the next trading day is expected to be 79.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.54, mean absolute percentage error of 4.61, and the sum of the absolute errors of 93.67.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Alleima Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Alleima AB's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Alleima AB Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Alleima AB | Alleima AB Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Alleima AB Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Alleima AB's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Alleima AB's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 77.05 and 81.47, respectively. We have considered Alleima AB's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alleima AB stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alleima AB stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.6379 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.5355 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0187 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 93.6653 |
Predictive Modules for Alleima AB
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alleima AB. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Alleima AB After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Alleima AB at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Alleima AB or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Alleima AB, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Alleima AB Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Alleima AB's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Alleima AB's historical news coverage. Alleima AB's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 78.09 and 82.51, respectively. We have considered Alleima AB's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Alleima AB is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Alleima AB is based on 3 months time horizon.
Alleima AB Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Alleima AB is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Alleima AB backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Alleima AB, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.05 | 2.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
80.80 | 80.30 | 0.00 |
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Alleima AB Hype Timeline
Alleima AB is presently traded for 80.80on Stockholm Exchange of Sweden. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Alleima is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.05%. %. The volatility of related hype on Alleima AB is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 80.80. About 51.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.59. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Alleima AB recorded earning per share (EPS) of 5.92. The entity last dividend was issued on the 3rd of May 2023. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next projected press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alleima AB to cross-verify your projections.Alleima AB Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Alleima AB's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Alleima AB's future price movements. Getting to know how Alleima AB's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Alleima AB may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BILL | BillerudKorsnas AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.42 | (2.73) | 19.58 | |
| GRNG | Grnges AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.35 | 0.08 | 2.63 | (2.48) | 7.01 | |
| HPOL-B | HEXPOL AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 1.91 | (1.64) | 18.85 | |
| BEGR | BE Group AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.33 | (3.46) | 11.33 | |
| SSAB-B | SSAB AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.65 | 0.17 | 4.27 | (3.30) | 9.38 | |
| ARPL | Arla Plast AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.54 | (3.25) | 8.67 | |
| BOTX | Botnia Gold AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.94 | 0.01 | 7.14 | (6.61) | 16.84 | |
| RROS | Rottneros AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.80 | (3.48) | 21.60 | |
| LUC | Lucara Diamond Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.33 | 0.12 | 6.29 | (3.73) | 41.80 |
Other Forecasting Options for Alleima AB
For every potential investor in Alleima, whether a beginner or expert, Alleima AB's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Alleima Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Alleima. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Alleima AB's price trends.Alleima AB Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Alleima AB stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Alleima AB could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alleima AB by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Alleima AB Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Alleima AB stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Alleima AB shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Alleima AB stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Alleima AB entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Alleima AB Risk Indicators
The analysis of Alleima AB's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Alleima AB's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting alleima stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.4 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.13 | |||
| Variance | 4.53 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Alleima AB
The number of cover stories for Alleima AB depends on current market conditions and Alleima AB's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Alleima AB is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Alleima AB's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Alleima AB Short Properties
Alleima AB's future price predictability will typically decrease when Alleima AB's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Alleima AB often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Alleima AB's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alleima AB's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 250.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.7 B |
Additional Tools for Alleima Stock Analysis
When running Alleima AB's price analysis, check to measure Alleima AB's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alleima AB is operating at the current time. Most of Alleima AB's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alleima AB's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alleima AB's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alleima AB to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.