Alma Metals Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| ALM Stock | 0.01 0 22.22% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Alma Metals on the next trading day is expected to be 0.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.0006 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.04. Alma Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength momentum indicator of Alma Metals' share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Alma Metals hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Alma Metals from the perspective of Alma Metals response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Alma Metals on the next trading day is expected to be 0.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.0006 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.04. Alma Metals after-hype prediction price | AUD 0.01 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Alma |
Alma Metals Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Alma price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Alma using various technical indicators. When you analyze Alma charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Alma Metals Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 13th of January 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Alma Metals on the next trading day is expected to be 0.01 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.0006, mean absolute percentage error of 0.00000073, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.04.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Alma Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Alma Metals' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Alma Metals Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Alma Metals | Alma Metals Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Alma Metals Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Alma Metals' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Alma Metals' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.0001 and 14.24, respectively. We have considered Alma Metals' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alma Metals stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alma Metals stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 102.1445 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 6.0E-4 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0831 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.0371 |
Predictive Modules for Alma Metals
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alma Metals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Alma Metals
For every potential investor in Alma, whether a beginner or expert, Alma Metals' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Alma Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Alma. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Alma Metals' price trends.Alma Metals Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Alma Metals stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Alma Metals could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alma Metals by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Alma Metals Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Alma Metals' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Alma Metals' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Alma Metals Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Alma Metals stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Alma Metals shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Alma Metals stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Alma Metals entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 850109.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 2.0 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.22 | |||
| Day Median Price | 0.0105 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 0.0107 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.0015 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.002 |
Alma Metals Risk Indicators
The analysis of Alma Metals' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Alma Metals' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting alma stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 9.32 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 8.19 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 14.02 | |||
| Variance | 196.64 | |||
| Downside Variance | 240.98 | |||
| Semi Variance | 67.01 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (21.02) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Additional Tools for Alma Stock Analysis
When running Alma Metals' price analysis, check to measure Alma Metals' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alma Metals is operating at the current time. Most of Alma Metals' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alma Metals' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alma Metals' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alma Metals to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.