Allison Transmission Stock Forward View - 20 Period Moving Average

Key Indicators . 20 Period Moving Average . Stocks . USA . 
Stock . Allison Transmission Holdings
ALSN Stock  USD 124.18  1.16  0.94%   
20 Period Moving Average is applied to Allison Transmission Holdings's daily closing prices, and the resulting forecast is presented with accuracy metrics. Wide deviation between fitted and observed values suggests the model's assumptions may not match current market conditions. The 20 Period Moving Average model projects Allison Transmission at 129.39 for the next trading day, above the most recent closing price. This 20 Period Moving Average output is provided as analytical reference and does not constitute a trading recommendation.
The 20-period moving average forecast for Allison Transmission Holdings replaces each daily value with the mean of that value and the 20 preceding closing prices. This is a widely used smoothing window that spans approximately one month of trading data.

20 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 11th of May 2026

Over a 90-day horizon, the 20 Period Moving Average model forecasts Allison Transmission at 129.39 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 5.91 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.05 , and sum of absolute errors of 242.24 .
This represents a tight forecast with good short-term tracking of Allison Transmission's price movement. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.

Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Allison Transmission  Allison Transmission Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Forecasted Value

Allison Transmission's next-session forecast estimates practical downside and upside boundaries based on the model's historical fit. The forecast band spans 127.40 to 131.38. The moderate spread reflects defined uncertainty around the forecast.
Market Value
124.18
127.40
Downside
129.39
Expected Value
131.38
Upside
Target Odds

Model Predictive Factors

The table below summarizes the 20 Period Moving Average model's error metrics for Allison Transmission stock. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.
AICAkaike Information Criteria85.2389
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -2.4422
MADMean absolute deviation5.9082
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0472
SAESum of the absolute errors242.236
The broader window aggressively filters short-term noise in Allison Transmission price data, producing a smooth trend line. This makes it useful for identifying the prevailing direction of Allison Transmission prices but slow to respond to reversals. The model is reliable only for very short-term projections (one to two periods).

Other Forecasting Options for Allison Transmission

The distribution of Allison Transmission's daily returns is typically non-normal, with fatter tails than a Gaussian model predicts. This reveals hidden support and resistance zones in Allison Transmission's chart that simple price charts miss.
Naive Prediction
Simple Exponential Smoothing
Double Exponential Smoothing
Triple Exponential Smoothing
Simple Regression
Polynomial Regression
Simple Moving Average
4 Period Moving Average
8 Period Moving Average
20 Period Moving Average

Allison Transmission Related Equities

Allison Transmission's market space within the Industrials space is illustrated by the firms listed below. Revenue and margin checks across this group help investors set expectations for Allison Transmission's results. Identifying peers that steadily beat or lag Allison Transmission across many periods highlights durable competitive gaps. Peer review is one of the most widely used methods in stock research and portfolio building.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Allison Transmission Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators for Allison Transmission stock provide a framework for assessing security responsiveness. A rising Accumulation/Distribution line alongside rising price confirms institutional buying interest in Allison Transmission.
Accumulation Distribution0.0227
Daily Balance Of Power0.407
Rate Of Daily Change1.01
Day Median Price124.31
Day Typical Price124.26
Market Facilitation Index2.85
Price Action Indicator0.46
Period Momentum Indicator1.16

Allison Transmission Risk Indicators

Assessing Allison Transmission's risk indicators is a structured way to evaluate the risk-return trade-off for allison stock. The level of risk embedded in Allison Transmission's feeds directly into exposure calibration.
Mean Deviation1.5
Semi Deviation1.71
Standard Deviation1.97
Variance3.89
Downside Variance3.17
Semi Variance2.92
Expected Short fall-1.65
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Allison Transmission Short Properties

Short-interest signals around Allison Transmission reveal whether skeptical positioning is starting to pressure price predictability and market tone. The practical goal is to identify when the balance between long and short participation may be changing the quality of the setup.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding85 million
Cash And Short Term Investments1.5 billion
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