Altair Engineering Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

ALTRDelisted Stock  USD 111.85  0.05  0.04%   
Altair Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The value of RSI of Altair Engineering's stock price is slightly above 66. This suggests that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of today. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Altair, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 66

 Buy Stretched

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Altair Engineering's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Altair Engineering and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Altair Engineering's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Altair Engineering, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Altair Engineering hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Altair Engineering from the perspective of Altair Engineering response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Altair Engineering on the next trading day is expected to be 112.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.79.

Altair Engineering after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 111.85  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as delisted stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as various price indices.

Altair Engineering Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Altair price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Altair using various technical indicators. When you analyze Altair charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for Altair Engineering is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Altair Engineering value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Altair Engineering Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Altair Engineering on the next trading day is expected to be 112.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18, mean absolute percentage error of 0.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.79.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Altair Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Altair Engineering's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Altair Engineering Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Altair Engineering  Altair Engineering Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Altair Engineering stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Altair Engineering stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.1582
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1769
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0016
SAESum of the absolute errors10.7936
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Altair Engineering. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Altair Engineering. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Altair Engineering

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Altair Engineering. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Altair Engineering's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
111.85111.85111.85
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
94.4794.47123.04
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
111.03111.48111.93
Details

Altair Engineering After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Altair Engineering at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Altair Engineering or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Altair Engineering, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Altair Engineering Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Altair Engineering's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Altair Engineering's historical news coverage. Altair Engineering's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 111.85 and 111.85, respectively. We have considered Altair Engineering's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
111.85
111.85
Downside
111.85
After-hype Price
111.85
Upside
Altair Engineering is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Altair Engineering is based on 3 months time horizon.

Altair Engineering Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Altair Engineering is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Altair Engineering backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Delisted Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Altair Engineering, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.00  
0.00
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
2 Events / Month
In 5 to 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
111.85
111.85
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Altair Engineering Hype Timeline

Altair Engineering is presently traded for 111.85. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Altair is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.0%. %. The volatility of related hype on Altair Engineering is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 111.85. About 93.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company last dividend was issued on the November 6, 2015. Altair Engineering had 2:1 split on the August 11, 2000. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in 5 to 10 days.
Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as various price indices.

Altair Engineering Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Altair Engineering's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Altair Engineering's future price movements. Getting to know how Altair Engineering's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Altair Engineering may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Altair Engineering Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Altair Engineering stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Altair Engineering could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Altair Engineering by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Altair Engineering Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Altair Engineering stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Altair Engineering shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Altair Engineering stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Altair Engineering entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Story Coverage note for Altair Engineering

The number of cover stories for Altair Engineering depends on current market conditions and Altair Engineering's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Altair Engineering is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Altair Engineering's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Altair Engineering Short Properties

Altair Engineering's future price predictability will typically decrease when Altair Engineering's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Altair Engineering often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Altair Engineering's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Altair Engineering's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding84.1 M
Cash And Short Term Investments561.9 M
Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as various price indices.
You can also try the Idea Optimizer module to use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio .

Other Consideration for investing in Altair Stock

If you are still planning to invest in Altair Engineering check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Altair Engineering's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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