Advanced Micro Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing

AMD Stock  EUR 204.55  4.35  2.08%   
Advanced Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Advanced Micro's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 5th of February 2026 the relative strength index (rsi) of Advanced Micro's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Advanced Micro's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Advanced Micro and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Advanced Micro's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Advanced Micro Devices, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Advanced Micro's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.603
Wall Street Target Price
117.45
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.356
Using Advanced Micro hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Advanced Micro Devices from the perspective of Advanced Micro response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Advanced Micro Devices on the next trading day is expected to be 204.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 308.57.

Advanced Micro after-hype prediction price

    
  EUR 203.95  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Advanced Micro to cross-verify your projections.

Advanced Micro Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Advanced price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Advanced using various technical indicators. When you analyze Advanced charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Advanced Micro simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Advanced Micro Devices are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Advanced Micro Devices prices get older.

Advanced Micro Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 6th of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Advanced Micro Devices on the next trading day is expected to be 204.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.14, mean absolute percentage error of 43.99, and the sum of the absolute errors of 308.57.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Advanced Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Advanced Micro's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Advanced Micro Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Advanced Micro  Advanced Micro Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Advanced Micro Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Advanced Micro's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Advanced Micro's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 201.29 and 207.81, respectively. We have considered Advanced Micro's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
204.55
201.29
Downside
204.55
Expected Value
207.81
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Advanced Micro stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Advanced Micro stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.0565
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.3342
MADMean absolute deviation5.1428
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0263
SAESum of the absolute errors308.57
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Advanced Micro Devices forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Advanced Micro observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Advanced Micro

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Advanced Micro Devices. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
200.69203.95207.21
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
165.13168.39225.01
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.620.670.76
Details

Advanced Micro After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Advanced Micro at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Advanced Micro or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Advanced Micro, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Advanced Micro Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Advanced Micro's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Advanced Micro's historical news coverage. Advanced Micro's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 200.69 and 207.21, respectively. We have considered Advanced Micro's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
204.55
200.69
Downside
203.95
After-hype Price
207.21
Upside
Advanced Micro is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Advanced Micro Devices is based on 3 months time horizon.

Advanced Micro Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Advanced Micro is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Advanced Micro backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Advanced Micro, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.09 
3.26
  0.60 
 0.00  
8 Events / Month
1 Events / Month
In about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
204.55
203.95
0.29 
48.80  
Notes

Advanced Micro Hype Timeline

Advanced Micro Devices is presently traded for 204.55on Frankfurt Exchange of Germany. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.6, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Advanced is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 203.95. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 48.8%. The price reduction on the next news is expected to be -0.29%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.09%. The volatility of related hype on Advanced Micro is about 39120.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 204.55. About 71.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.52. Advanced Micro Devices had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 8 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Advanced Micro to cross-verify your projections.

Advanced Micro Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Advanced Micro's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Advanced Micro's future price movements. Getting to know how Advanced Micro's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Advanced Micro may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Advanced Micro

For every potential investor in Advanced, whether a beginner or expert, Advanced Micro's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Advanced Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Advanced. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Advanced Micro's price trends.

Advanced Micro Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Advanced Micro stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Advanced Micro could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Advanced Micro by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Advanced Micro Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Advanced Micro stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Advanced Micro shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Advanced Micro stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Advanced Micro Devices entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Advanced Micro Risk Indicators

The analysis of Advanced Micro's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Advanced Micro's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting advanced stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Advanced Micro

The number of cover stories for Advanced Micro depends on current market conditions and Advanced Micro's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Advanced Micro is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Advanced Micro's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
When determining whether Advanced Micro Devices is a strong investment it is important to analyze Advanced Micro's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Advanced Micro's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Advanced Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Advanced Micro to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Technical Analysis module to check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data.
Understanding that Advanced Micro's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Advanced Micro represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. In contrast, Advanced Micro's trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.