Advanced Micro Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

AMD Stock  MXN 4,317  50.47  1.16%   
Advanced Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The value of RSI of Advanced Micro's share price is at 52. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Advanced Micro, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 52

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Advanced Micro's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Advanced Micro Devices, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Advanced Micro hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Advanced Micro Devices from the perspective of Advanced Micro response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Advanced Micro Devices on the next trading day is expected to be 3,842 with a mean absolute deviation of 257.84 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15,986.

Advanced Micro after-hype prediction price

    
  MXN 4316.92  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Advanced Micro to cross-verify your projections.

Advanced Micro Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Advanced price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Advanced using various technical indicators. When you analyze Advanced charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Advanced Micro price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Advanced Micro Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 29th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Advanced Micro Devices on the next trading day is expected to be 3,842 with a mean absolute deviation of 257.84, mean absolute percentage error of 91,657, and the sum of the absolute errors of 15,986.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Advanced Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Advanced Micro's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Advanced Micro Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Advanced Micro  Advanced Micro Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Advanced Micro Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Advanced Micro's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Advanced Micro's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 3,839 and 3,846, respectively. We have considered Advanced Micro's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
4,317
3,842
Expected Value
3,846
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Advanced Micro stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Advanced Micro stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria131.3742
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation257.8389
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0623
SAESum of the absolute errors15986.0138
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Advanced Micro Devices historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Advanced Micro

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Advanced Micro Devices. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
4,3144,3174,320
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
3,4543,4584,749
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
3,5314,0004,469
Details

Advanced Micro After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Advanced Micro at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Advanced Micro or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Advanced Micro, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Advanced Micro Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Advanced Micro's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Advanced Micro's historical news coverage. Advanced Micro's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 4,314 and 4,320, respectively. We have considered Advanced Micro's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
4,317
4,317
After-hype Price
4,320
Upside
Advanced Micro is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Advanced Micro Devices is based on 3 months time horizon.

Advanced Micro Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Advanced Micro is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Advanced Micro backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Advanced Micro, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.11 
3.33
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
In 5 to 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
4,317
4,317
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Advanced Micro Hype Timeline

Advanced Micro Devices is presently traded for 4,317on Mexican Exchange of Mexico. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Advanced is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.11%. %. The volatility of related hype on Advanced Micro is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 4,317. About 73.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Advanced Micro was presently reported as 33.94. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.89. Advanced Micro Devices recorded earning per share (EPS) of 15.43. The entity last dividend was issued on the 27th of April 1995. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Advanced Micro to cross-verify your projections.

Advanced Micro Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Advanced Micro's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Advanced Micro's future price movements. Getting to know how Advanced Micro's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Advanced Micro may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Advanced Micro

For every potential investor in Advanced, whether a beginner or expert, Advanced Micro's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Advanced Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Advanced. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Advanced Micro's price trends.

Advanced Micro Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Advanced Micro stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Advanced Micro could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Advanced Micro by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Advanced Micro Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Advanced Micro stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Advanced Micro shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Advanced Micro stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Advanced Micro Devices entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Advanced Micro Risk Indicators

The analysis of Advanced Micro's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Advanced Micro's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting advanced stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Advanced Micro

The number of cover stories for Advanced Micro depends on current market conditions and Advanced Micro's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Advanced Micro is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Advanced Micro's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

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Additional Tools for Advanced Stock Analysis

When running Advanced Micro's price analysis, check to measure Advanced Micro's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Advanced Micro is operating at the current time. Most of Advanced Micro's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Advanced Micro's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Advanced Micro's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Advanced Micro to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.