Amgen Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| AMGN Stock | USD 344.75 2.32 0.67% |
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Amgen Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 344.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.87 and the sum of the absolute errors of 287.45. Amgen Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Amgen's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Amgen's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Amgen fundamentals over time.
As of today the rsi of Amgen's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.136 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 5.0799 | EPS Estimate Current Year 21.2744 | EPS Estimate Next Year 22.0721 | Wall Street Target Price 331.5926 |
Using Amgen hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Amgen Inc from the perspective of Amgen response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Amgen using Amgen's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Amgen using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Amgen's stock price.
Amgen Short Interest
An investor who is long Amgen may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Amgen and may potentially protect profits, hedge Amgen with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 299.2348 | Short Percent 0.0279 | Short Ratio 5.13 | Shares Short Prior Month 14.1 M | 50 Day MA 331.9548 |
Amgen Inc Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Amgen's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Amgen. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Amgen can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Amgen Inc. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Amgen Implied Volatility | 0.35 |
Amgen's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Amgen Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Amgen's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Amgen stock will not fluctuate a lot when Amgen's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Amgen Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 344.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.87 and the sum of the absolute errors of 287.45. Amgen after-hype prediction price | USD 345.28 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Amgen to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Amgen contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Amgen Inc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0219% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Amgen trading at USD 344.75, that is roughly USD 0.0754 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Amgen's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Amgen Inc options at the current volatility level of 0.35%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Amgen Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Amgen's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Amgen's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Amgen stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Amgen's open interest, investors have to compare it to Amgen's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Amgen is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Amgen. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Amgen Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Amgen price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Amgen using various technical indicators. When you analyze Amgen charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Amgen Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Amgen Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 344.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.87, mean absolute percentage error of 46.18, and the sum of the absolute errors of 287.45.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Amgen Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Amgen's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Amgen Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Amgen | Amgen Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Amgen Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Amgen's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Amgen's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 342.92 and 346.58, respectively. We have considered Amgen's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Amgen stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Amgen stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.2674 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -1.3969 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 4.8721 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0148 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 287.455 |
Predictive Modules for Amgen
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Amgen Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Amgen After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Amgen at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Amgen or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Amgen, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Amgen Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Amgen's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Amgen's historical news coverage. Amgen's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 343.45 and 347.11, respectively. We have considered Amgen's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Amgen is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Amgen Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Amgen Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Amgen is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Amgen backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Amgen, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.31 | 1.83 | 0.53 | 0.31 | 7 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
344.75 | 345.28 | 0.15 |
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Amgen Hype Timeline
Amgen Inc is presently traded for 344.75. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.53, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.31. Amgen is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 345.28 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 107.02%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.15%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.31%. The volatility of related hype on Amgen is about 185.04%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 344.44. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 33.42 B. Net Income was 4.09 B with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 25.2 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Amgen to cross-verify your projections.Amgen Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Amgen's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Amgen's future price movements. Getting to know how Amgen's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Amgen may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GILD | Gilead Sciences | (3.05) | 8 per month | 1.38 | 0.06 | 3.01 | (2.41) | 6.70 | |
| PFE | Pfizer Inc | 0.09 | 7 per month | 1.09 | 0.03 | 2.02 | (1.92) | 7.97 | |
| SNY | Sanofi ADR | (0.11) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 2.01 | (2.16) | 7.20 | |
| MRK | Merck Company | 1.34 | 5 per month | 1.09 | 0.17 | 3.59 | (1.98) | 8.09 | |
| DHR | Danaher | (4.44) | 11 per month | 0.90 | 0.08 | 2.35 | (1.67) | 8.54 | |
| BMY | Bristol Myers Squibb | (0.30) | 7 per month | 1.01 | 0.16 | 3.59 | (1.98) | 11.16 | |
| NVO | Novo Nordisk AS | 0.07 | 6 per month | 1.91 | 0.05 | 5.80 | (2.86) | 12.57 | |
| BSX | Boston Scientific Corp | 0.14 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 2.42 | (2.23) | 7.91 | |
| GSK | GlaxoSmithKline PLC ADR | (0.58) | 10 per month | 1.29 | 0.07 | 2.41 | (2.17) | 8.39 | |
| NVS | Novartis AG ADR | (3.05) | 21 per month | 1.04 | 0.07 | 2.59 | (2.06) | 5.29 |
Other Forecasting Options for Amgen
For every potential investor in Amgen, whether a beginner or expert, Amgen's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Amgen Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Amgen. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Amgen's price trends.Amgen Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Amgen stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Amgen could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Amgen by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Amgen Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Amgen stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Amgen shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Amgen stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Amgen Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0212 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.31) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 345.53 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 345.27 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 7.41 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (1.94) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (2.32) |
Amgen Risk Indicators
The analysis of Amgen's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Amgen's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting amgen stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.22 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.19 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.79 | |||
| Variance | 3.21 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.09 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.41 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.35) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Amgen
The number of cover stories for Amgen depends on current market conditions and Amgen's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Amgen is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Amgen's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Amgen Short Properties
Amgen's future price predictability will typically decrease when Amgen's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Amgen Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Amgen's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Amgen's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 541 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 12 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Amgen to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Insider Screener module to find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Amgen. If investors know Amgen will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Amgen listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.136 | Dividend Share 9.39 | Earnings Share 12.93 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.124 |
The market value of Amgen Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Amgen that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Amgen's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Amgen's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Amgen's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Amgen's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Amgen's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Amgen is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Amgen's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.