Admiral Group Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction
| AMIGY Stock | USD 38.41 1.70 4.24% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Admiral Group PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 38.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.46 and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.73. Admiral Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Admiral Group's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the pink sheet is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Admiral Group hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Admiral Group PLC from the perspective of Admiral Group response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Admiral Group PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 38.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.46 and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.73. Admiral Group after-hype prediction price | USD 38.41 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Admiral |
Admiral Group Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Admiral price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Admiral using various technical indicators. When you analyze Admiral charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Admiral Group Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Admiral Group PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 38.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.46, mean absolute percentage error of 0.32, and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.73.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Admiral Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Admiral Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Admiral Group Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Admiral Group | Admiral Group Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Admiral Group Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Admiral Group's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Admiral Group's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 36.78 and 39.46, respectively. We have considered Admiral Group's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Admiral Group pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Admiral Group pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.7951 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4633 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.011 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 28.7251 |
Predictive Modules for Admiral Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Admiral Group PLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Admiral Group After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Admiral Group at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Admiral Group or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Admiral Group, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Admiral Group Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Admiral Group's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Admiral Group's historical news coverage. Admiral Group's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 37.08 and 39.74, respectively. We have considered Admiral Group's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Admiral Group is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Admiral Group PLC is based on 3 months time horizon.
Admiral Group Pink Sheet Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Admiral Group is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Admiral Group backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Admiral Group, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.24 | 1.34 | 0.18 | 0.01 | 4 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 4 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
38.41 | 38.41 | 0.00 |
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Admiral Group Hype Timeline
Admiral Group PLC is presently traded for 38.41. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.18, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Admiral is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 176.32%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.24%. %. The volatility of related hype on Admiral Group is about 2576.92%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 38.42. The company last dividend was issued on the 1st of September 2022. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 4 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Admiral Group to cross-verify your projections.Admiral Group Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Admiral Group's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Admiral Group's future price movements. Getting to know how Admiral Group's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Admiral Group may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SNMCY | Suncorp Group Ltd | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 7.60 | (9.31) | 21.88 | |
| IAUGY | Insurance Australia Group | (0.12) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.88 | (3.39) | 12.59 | |
| BKIMF | Bankinter SA | 0.76 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.97 | |
| SNMYF | Suncorp Group Limited | (0.12) | 13 per month | 0.00 | (0.32) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 5.87 | |
| BKNIY | Bankinter SA ADR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.51 | 0.03 | 2.57 | (2.08) | 6.81 | |
| JBARF | Julius Br Gruppe | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.93 | 0.12 | 4.37 | (4.23) | 11.13 | |
| FRFFF | Fairfax Financial Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 0.22 | 0.00 | 2.99 | |
| HELNF | Helvetia Holding AG | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 73.93 | |
| PZAKY | Powszechny Zaklad Ubezpieczen | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.08 | 10.06 | (1.69) | 31.70 | |
| PBNNF | PT Bank Negara | 0.00 | 0 per month | 22.93 | 0.16 | 92.86 | (48.78) | 186.32 |
Other Forecasting Options for Admiral Group
For every potential investor in Admiral, whether a beginner or expert, Admiral Group's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Admiral Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Admiral. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Admiral Group's price trends.Admiral Group Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Admiral Group pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Admiral Group could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Admiral Group by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Admiral Group Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Admiral Group pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Admiral Group shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Admiral Group pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Admiral Group PLC entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 173.13 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (1.83) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.96 | |||
| Day Median Price | 38.64 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 38.56 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 1.0E-4 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (1.08) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.70) |
Admiral Group Risk Indicators
The analysis of Admiral Group's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Admiral Group's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting admiral pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9824 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.32 | |||
| Variance | 1.76 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Admiral Group
The number of cover stories for Admiral Group depends on current market conditions and Admiral Group's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Admiral Group is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Admiral Group's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Admiral Group Short Properties
Admiral Group's future price predictability will typically decrease when Admiral Group's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Admiral Group PLC often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Admiral Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Admiral Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 298.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 372.7 M |
Additional Tools for Admiral Pink Sheet Analysis
When running Admiral Group's price analysis, check to measure Admiral Group's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Admiral Group is operating at the current time. Most of Admiral Group's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Admiral Group's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Admiral Group's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Admiral Group to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.