Aston Martin Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| AML Stock | 55.25 1.65 2.90% |
Aston Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Aston Martin stock prices and determine the direction of Aston Martin Lagonda's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Aston Martin's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Aston Martin's share price is at 58. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Aston Martin, making its price go up or down. Momentum 58
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.06) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.25) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.11) | Wall Street Target Price 72.667 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.08) |
Using Aston Martin hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Aston Martin Lagonda from the perspective of Aston Martin response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Aston Martin Lagonda on the next trading day is expected to be 56.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.93 and the sum of the absolute errors of 55.08. Aston Martin after-hype prediction price | GBX 55.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Aston |
Aston Martin Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Aston price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Aston using various technical indicators. When you analyze Aston charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Aston Martin Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 26th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Aston Martin Lagonda on the next trading day is expected to be 56.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.93, mean absolute percentage error of 1.39, and the sum of the absolute errors of 55.08.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Aston Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Aston Martin's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Aston Martin Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Aston Martin | Aston Martin Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Aston Martin Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Aston Martin's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Aston Martin's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 54.34 and 57.81, respectively. We have considered Aston Martin's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aston Martin stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aston Martin stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.7651 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.2013 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.9335 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0151 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 55.075 |
Predictive Modules for Aston Martin
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aston Martin Lagonda. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Aston Martin After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Aston Martin at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Aston Martin or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Aston Martin, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Aston Martin Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Aston Martin's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Aston Martin's historical news coverage. Aston Martin's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 53.27 and 56.73, respectively. We have considered Aston Martin's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Aston Martin is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Aston Martin Lagonda is based on 3 months time horizon.
Aston Martin Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Aston Martin is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Aston Martin backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Aston Martin, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.14 | 1.73 | 0.25 | 75.56 | 3 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 3 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
55.25 | 55.00 | 0.45 |
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Aston Martin Hype Timeline
Aston Martin Lagonda is presently traded for 55.25on London Exchange of UK. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.25, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -75.56. Aston is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 55.0. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 98.86%. The price decline on the next news is expected to be -0.45%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.14%. The volatility of related hype on Aston Martin is about 0.32%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of -20.31. About 55.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.22. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Aston Martin Lagonda recorded a loss per share of 0.4. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. The firm had 1:20 split on the 14th of December 2020. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 3 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aston Martin to cross-verify your projections.Aston Martin Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Aston Martin's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Aston Martin's future price movements. Getting to know how Aston Martin's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Aston Martin may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BC94 | Samsung Electronics Co | 16.00 | 5 per month | 1.41 | 0.43 | 5.77 | (3.05) | 13.29 | |
| SMSD | Samsung Electronics Co | (15.00) | 5 per month | 1.26 | 0.40 | 5.44 | (2.66) | 12.16 | |
| SMSN | Samsung Electronics Co | 68.00 | 5 per month | 1.38 | 0.41 | 6.03 | (3.03) | 11.22 | |
| TYT | Toyota Motor Corp | (64.00) | 8 per month | 1.30 | 0.10 | 3.26 | (2.29) | 10.55 | |
| GTCO | Guaranty Trust Holding | 0.0008 | 4 per month | 3.74 | 0.11 | 8.83 | (5.20) | 23.04 | |
| 0LCV | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing | 2.00 | 7 per month | 1.36 | 0.23 | 4.48 | (2.68) | 10.72 | |
| RIGD | Reliance Industries Limited | 0.60 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 1.60 | (2.66) | 7.27 | |
| 0RUK | MOL Hungarian Oil | 0.00 | 3 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| 0M69 | OTP Bank Nyrt | (4,865) | 1 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Other Forecasting Options for Aston Martin
For every potential investor in Aston, whether a beginner or expert, Aston Martin's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Aston Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Aston. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Aston Martin's price trends.Aston Martin Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Aston Martin stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Aston Martin could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Aston Martin by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Aston Martin Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Aston Martin stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Aston Martin shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Aston Martin stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Aston Martin Lagonda entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 285641.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.32) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.97 | |||
| Day Median Price | 57.18 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 56.53 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (2.75) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.65) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 58.86 |
Aston Martin Risk Indicators
The analysis of Aston Martin's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Aston Martin's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aston stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.34 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.85 | |||
| Variance | 3.43 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Aston Martin
The number of cover stories for Aston Martin depends on current market conditions and Aston Martin's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Aston Martin is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Aston Martin's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Aston Martin Short Properties
Aston Martin's future price predictability will typically decrease when Aston Martin's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Aston Martin Lagonda often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Aston Martin's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aston Martin's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 832.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 359.6 M |
Other Information on Investing in Aston Stock
Aston Martin financial ratios help investors to determine whether Aston Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Aston with respect to the benefits of owning Aston Martin security.