AMN Healthcare Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| AMN Stock | USD 19.61 0.31 1.61% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of AMN Healthcare Services on the next trading day is expected to be 21.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.52 and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.76. AMN Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
As of today, The value of RSI of AMN Healthcare's share price is at 58. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling AMN Healthcare, making its price go up or down. Momentum 58
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using AMN Healthcare hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of AMN Healthcare Services from the perspective of AMN Healthcare response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of AMN Healthcare Services on the next trading day is expected to be 21.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.52 and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.76. AMN Healthcare after-hype prediction price | USD 19.61 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AMN Healthcare to cross-verify your projections. AMN Healthcare Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine AMN price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for AMN using various technical indicators. When you analyze AMN charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
AMN Healthcare Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of AMN Healthcare Services on the next trading day is expected to be 21.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.52, mean absolute percentage error of 0.53, and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.76.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict AMN Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that AMN Healthcare's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
AMN Healthcare Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest AMN Healthcare | AMN Healthcare Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
AMN Healthcare Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting AMN Healthcare's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. AMN Healthcare's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 17.38 and 26.37, respectively. We have considered AMN Healthcare's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of AMN Healthcare stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent AMN Healthcare stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.467 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5206 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.03 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 31.756 |
Predictive Modules for AMN Healthcare
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AMN Healthcare Services. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.AMN Healthcare After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of AMN Healthcare at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in AMN Healthcare or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of AMN Healthcare, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
AMN Healthcare Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting AMN Healthcare's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on AMN Healthcare's historical news coverage. AMN Healthcare's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 15.12 and 24.10, respectively. We have considered AMN Healthcare's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
AMN Healthcare is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of AMN Healthcare Services is based on 3 months time horizon.
AMN Healthcare Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as AMN Healthcare is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading AMN Healthcare backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with AMN Healthcare, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.04 | 4.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
19.61 | 19.61 | 0.00 |
|
AMN Healthcare Hype Timeline
On the 22nd of January AMN Healthcare Services is traded for 19.61. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. AMN is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.04%. %. The volatility of related hype on AMN Healthcare is about 8314.81%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 19.61. About 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.12. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. AMN Healthcare Services has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.71. The entity recorded a loss per share of 7.2. The firm had not issued any dividends in recent years. AMN Healthcare had 2:1 split on the 28th of May 2003. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AMN Healthcare to cross-verify your projections.AMN Healthcare Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to AMN Healthcare's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict AMN Healthcare's future price movements. Getting to know how AMN Healthcare's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how AMN Healthcare may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MYGN | Myriad Genetics | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 5.67 | (4.05) | 22.77 | |
| EVH | Evolent Health | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.27) | 4.24 | (7.42) | 18.39 | |
| REPL | Replimune Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 5.56 | (5.32) | 20.44 | |
| DNA | Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 8.16 | (6.79) | 28.96 | |
| NUTX | Nutex Health | 0.45 | 4 per month | 5.53 | 0.07 | 13.09 | (9.66) | 39.99 | |
| CMPS | Compass Pathways Plc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.50 | 0.05 | 8.25 | (5.73) | 28.62 | |
| HSTM | HealthStream | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.28) | 2.61 | (2.29) | 6.59 | |
| MRVI | Maravai Lifesciences Holdings | 0.09 | 9 per month | 3.17 | 0.05 | 8.38 | (6.35) | 20.24 | |
| BFLY | Butterfly Network | 0.00 | 0 per month | 4.80 | 0.18 | 14.22 | (9.14) | 42.22 | |
| AIRS | Airsculpt Technologies | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 9.30 | (13.38) | 50.82 |
Other Forecasting Options for AMN Healthcare
For every potential investor in AMN, whether a beginner or expert, AMN Healthcare's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. AMN Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in AMN. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying AMN Healthcare's price trends.AMN Healthcare Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with AMN Healthcare stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of AMN Healthcare could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing AMN Healthcare by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
AMN Healthcare Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how AMN Healthcare stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading AMN Healthcare shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying AMN Healthcare stock market strength indicators, traders can identify AMN Healthcare Services entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
AMN Healthcare Risk Indicators
The analysis of AMN Healthcare's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in AMN Healthcare's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting amn stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.44 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.49 | |||
| Variance | 20.18 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for AMN Healthcare
The number of cover stories for AMN Healthcare depends on current market conditions and AMN Healthcare's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that AMN Healthcare is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about AMN Healthcare's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
AMN Healthcare Short Properties
AMN Healthcare's future price predictability will typically decrease when AMN Healthcare's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of AMN Healthcare Services often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential AMN Healthcare's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AMN Healthcare's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 38.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 10.6 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AMN Healthcare to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the CEOs Directory module to screen CEOs from public companies around the world.
Is Stock space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of AMN Healthcare. If investors know AMN will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about AMN Healthcare listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of AMN Healthcare Services is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of AMN that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of AMN Healthcare's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is AMN Healthcare's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because AMN Healthcare's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect AMN Healthcare's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between AMN Healthcare's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if AMN Healthcare is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, AMN Healthcare's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.