Gold Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| AMRKDelisted Stock | USD 43.11 0.89 2.02% |
Gold Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of now, the value of RSI of Gold's share price is approaching 48. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Gold, making its price go up or down. Momentum 48
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Gold hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Gold Inc from the perspective of Gold response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Gold Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 26.91 with a mean absolute deviation of 119.43 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7,166. Gold after-hype prediction price | USD 43.11 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as delisted stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Gold |
Gold Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Gold price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Gold using various technical indicators. When you analyze Gold charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Gold Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 31st of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Gold Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 26.91 with a mean absolute deviation of 119.43, mean absolute percentage error of 387,450, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7,166.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Gold Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Gold's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Gold Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Gold | Gold Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Gold Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Gold's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Gold's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.43 and 212.39, respectively. We have considered Gold's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Gold stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Gold stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 129.14 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -118.6703 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 119.431 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.1932 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7165.86 |
Predictive Modules for Gold
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Gold Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Gold After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Gold at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Gold or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Gold, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Gold Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Gold's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Gold's historical news coverage. Gold's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 2.16 and 4,354, respectively. We have considered Gold's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Gold is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Gold Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Gold Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Gold is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Gold backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Delisted Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Gold, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
31.90 | 185.48 | 0.64 | 1.82 | 8 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
43.11 | 43.11 | 0.00 |
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Gold Hype Timeline
Gold Inc is presently traded for 43.11. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.64, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -1.82. Gold is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 31.9%. %. The volatility of related hype on Gold is about 325403.51%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 41.29. About 25.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.12. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Gold Inc last dividend was issued on the 19th of November 2025. The entity had 2:1 split on the 7th of June 2022. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Gold to cross-verify your projections.Gold Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Gold's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Gold's future price movements. Getting to know how Gold's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Gold may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DEFT | DeFi Technologies | 0.01 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 9.78 | (13.89) | 36.00 | |
| AXG | Solowin Holdings | (0.04) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.01) | 10.33 | (7.56) | 25.94 | |
| OPY | Oppenheimer Holdings | (1.78) | 6 per month | 1.39 | 0.07 | 3.11 | (2.18) | 8.88 | |
| FUFU | BitFuFu Class A | 0.07 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 6.43 | (8.46) | 22.36 | |
| MFH | Mercurity Fintech Holding | 0.02 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 17.84 | (21.67) | 46.71 | |
| GEMI | Gemini Space Station | (0.27) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 7.34 | (10.18) | 44.06 | |
| HTBK | Heritage Commerce Corp | (0.15) | 9 per month | 1.15 | 0.15 | 2.85 | (2.06) | 9.72 | |
| EIC | Eagle Pointome | (0.03) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 1.37 | (2.07) | 5.65 | |
| CAC | Camden National | 1.22 | 8 per month | 1.29 | 0.16 | 3.78 | (2.43) | 10.30 | |
| HIFS | Hingham Institution for | 0.38 | 20 per month | 3.42 | (0) | 4.99 | (6.00) | 16.01 |
Other Forecasting Options for Gold
For every potential investor in Gold, whether a beginner or expert, Gold's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Gold Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Gold. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Gold's price trends.Gold Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Gold stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Gold could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Gold by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Gold Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Gold stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Gold shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Gold stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Gold Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Gold Risk Indicators
The analysis of Gold's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Gold's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting gold stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 537.94 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 6.21 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1594.87 | |||
| Variance | 2543620.13 | |||
| Downside Variance | 894.43 | |||
| Semi Variance | 38.53 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (437.78) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Gold
The number of cover stories for Gold depends on current market conditions and Gold's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Gold is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Gold's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Gold Short Properties
Gold's future price predictability will typically decrease when Gold's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Gold Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Gold's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Gold's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 24.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 77.7 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Gold to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Pair Correlation module to compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments.
Other Consideration for investing in Gold Stock
If you are still planning to invest in Gold Inc check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Gold's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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