Alternaturals Pink Sheet Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| ANAS Stock | USD 0.02 0 9.52% |
Alternaturals Pink Sheet outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Alternaturals' share price is below 20 . This suggests that the pink sheet is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Alternaturals hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Alternaturals from the perspective of Alternaturals response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Alternaturals on the next trading day is expected to be 0.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.0009 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.05. Alternaturals after-hype prediction price | USD 0.02 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Alternaturals |
Alternaturals Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Alternaturals price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Alternaturals using various technical indicators. When you analyze Alternaturals charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Alternaturals Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 9th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Alternaturals on the next trading day is expected to be 0.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.0009, mean absolute percentage error of 0.00000379, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.05.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Alternaturals Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Alternaturals' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Alternaturals Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Alternaturals | Alternaturals Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Alternaturals Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Alternaturals' Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Alternaturals' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.0002 and 14.50, respectively. We have considered Alternaturals' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alternaturals pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alternaturals pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 103.7902 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -2.0E-4 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 9.0E-4 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.056 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.0531 |
Predictive Modules for Alternaturals
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alternaturals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Alternaturals After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Alternaturals at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Alternaturals or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Alternaturals, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Alternaturals Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Alternaturals' pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Alternaturals' historical news coverage. Alternaturals' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.00 and 14.50, respectively. We have considered Alternaturals' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Alternaturals is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Alternaturals is based on 3 months time horizon.
Alternaturals Pink Sheet Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Alternaturals is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Alternaturals backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Alternaturals, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
2.15 | 14.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
0.02 | 0.02 | 5.26 |
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Alternaturals Hype Timeline
Alternaturals is presently traded for 0.02. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Alternaturals is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 0.02 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is insignificant. The price appreciation on the next news is estimated to be 5.26%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 2.15%. The volatility of related hype on Alternaturals is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.02. Alternaturals currently holds about 5.87 K in cash with (130.99 K) of positive cash flow from operations. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alternaturals to cross-verify your projections.Alternaturals Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Alternaturals' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Alternaturals' future price movements. Getting to know how Alternaturals' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Alternaturals may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GNCNF | Gencan Capital | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| PRDL | Profitable Develop | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 150.00 | |
| NGCG | New Generation Consumer | 0.00 | 0 per month | 10.75 | 0.02 | 33.33 | (25.00) | 91.67 | |
| TFGL | Nuvonyx | 0.00 | 0 per month | 14.47 | 0.18 | 67.19 | (34.00) | 303.67 | |
| NIHL | New Infinity Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 12.06 | 0.1 | 12.50 | (29.33) | 402.17 | |
| FKST | Flowerkist Skin Care | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.16 | 13.64 | 0.00 | 464.17 | |
| IVFZF | Invictus Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 79.03 | |
| UBSBF | Kure Technologies | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 23.74 | |
| TNBI | Tanke Biosciences | 0.00 | 0 per month | 7.51 | 0.02 | 33.33 | (20.00) | 70.00 | |
| LICH | LiveChain | 0.00 | 0 per month | 9.95 | 0.11 | 36.36 | (26.67) | 169.60 |
Other Forecasting Options for Alternaturals
For every potential investor in Alternaturals, whether a beginner or expert, Alternaturals' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Alternaturals Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Alternaturals. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Alternaturals' price trends.Alternaturals Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Alternaturals pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Alternaturals could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alternaturals by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Alternaturals Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Alternaturals pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Alternaturals shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Alternaturals pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Alternaturals entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.9 | |||
| Day Median Price | 0.019 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 0.019 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0) |
Alternaturals Risk Indicators
The analysis of Alternaturals' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Alternaturals' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting alternaturals pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 7.17 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 6.34 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 14.15 | |||
| Variance | 200.11 | |||
| Downside Variance | 228.16 | |||
| Semi Variance | 40.17 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (21.65) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Alternaturals
The number of cover stories for Alternaturals depends on current market conditions and Alternaturals' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Alternaturals is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Alternaturals' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for Alternaturals Pink Sheet Analysis
When running Alternaturals' price analysis, check to measure Alternaturals' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alternaturals is operating at the current time. Most of Alternaturals' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alternaturals' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alternaturals' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alternaturals to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.